The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) had pinned its hopes of winning the Jan. 13 presidential election on convincing people that it would serve their interests, not China’s, but its central pitch was undercut by one of its own just days before the polls opened.
“You can never fight a war with the mainland [China]. You can never win,” former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) told German broadcaster Deutsche Welle.
The comments by Ma, who remains a senior figure in the KMT, indicated that Taiwan would be powerless to stand up to Beijing, undermining the party’s messaging.
Photo: CNA
New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), the KMT’s candidate, distanced himself from Ma, saying that their views “differed.”
The former president was also reportedly not invited to the party’s election-night rally, but voters were unswayed.
The incident highlights a crisis within Taiwan’s oldest political party: How to appeal to people who increasingly see themselves as distinct from Chinese, while satisfying the party’s influential old guard, who favor eventual unification.
“Its narrative on engaging with China is less favored by today’s young voters,” former KMT legislator-at-large Jason Hsu (許毓仁) said. “In the past, we’ve seen efforts by members to be more modern, but those efforts were shut down.”
Tracing its origins back to 1894, the party was instrumental in overthrowing the Qing Dynasty and establishing the Republic of China.
The KMT ruled China through much of the first half of the 20th century until defeat by Mao Zedong’s (毛澤東) Communists in 1949 forced it to flee to Taiwan.
It ruled Taiwan for decades as an authoritarian one-party state before implementing democratic reforms in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Now, 28 years after Taiwan’s first democratic presidential election, it is facing a crisis of relevance.
Hou lost by almost 1 million votes to Vice President William Lai (賴清德) of the Democratic Progressive Party.
The result marks a troubling moment for the KMT. While the party increased its share of the vote from 2020, many Taiwanese remain distrustful of its commitment to eventual unification with China, especially under the government of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平).
“The KMT has a pro-China problem,” said Tsai Chia-hung (蔡佳泓), a research fellow at National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center. “Certainly they can distinguish themselves from other parties by claiming they understand China more, but China is becoming more coercive and less popular in the world, so that’s why the KMT lost its presidential bid this year.”
The loss was also a blow for Beijing, which prefers the KMT as its negotiating partner in Taipei and has labeled Lai a separatist who risks sparking a war.
While the KMT increased its presence in the legislature to 52 seats, one more than the DPP, it fell short of its goal of a majority.
The Taiwan People’s Party now controls the balance of power in the assembly, with its eight seats vital to securing a majority in any vote on legislation.
With Hou’s campaign struggling to close the gap with Lai in the final months of the campaign, Ma emerged as a key player behind a bid to create a joint opposition ticket between the KMT and the TPP, which ultimately imploded in a public display of bickering.
Ma’s involvement indicates that he remains “a pretty powerful figure” in the KMT, said Sarah Newland, assistant professor of government at Smith College in Massachusetts.
“They haven’t been able to figure out how to move into a new ideological basis that will both satisfy the party’s old guard and appeal to Taiwan voters,” she said.
In its charter, the KMT makes clear its wish to “unite the people,” “oppose separatism” and “champion the interests of the Chinese nation.”
However, there is a shrinking market for those goals in Taiwan.
Only 11.8 percent of respondents supported unifying with China, while 48.9 percent back formal independence and 26.9 percent prefer the “status quo,” a Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation poll in August showed.
The nation’s roughly three decades of democracy have also fostered a growing sense of self-identity, a long-running study by National Chengchi University showed.
Another issue looming over the KMT is its finances. In 1998, it was the richest party in the world, with assets of NT$91.8 billion (US$2.93 billion), the party said.
That has changed. A government probe into improper gains during the KMT’s four decades of authoritarian rule hit party coffers. The KMT’s assets stood at US$20.2 billion in 2022, of which US$19.7 billion are frozen or limited in how they can be used, a party financial declaration showed.
Still, the KMT remains a significant force in Taiwanese politics, particularly on a local level.
As well as being the largest party in the legislature, it controls 14 of Taiwan’s 22 administrative regions versus the DPP’s six.
“The KMT built an incredibly strong network of voter mobilization down to the ultra-local level,” Newland said. “People don’t tend to vote on independence-unification issues in local races, so they’re much more willing to vote for the KMT.”
This latest lost could be a moment of reckoning for the party.
“This defeat is not necessarily a bad thing if the KMT can change from within,” Hsu said. “It doesn’t mean it has to disconnect with China, but it needs to provide a more convincing narrative that it’s a party that can trusted when it comes to China.”
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