A former US defense official yesterday called on Taiwan, the US and their allies to be prepared for “a moment in the late 2020s” when the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might launch military operations against Taiwan.
Speaking virtually at a security conference in Taipei, Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for policy under former US president Barack Obama, said that the Indo-Pacific region is facing the rise of a “more assertive China.”
It is “trying to change some of those rules of the international order and to assert its will, as its economic and military power grows,” Flournoy said.
Photo: CNA
Increasing tensions between the US and China in the past few years were not because of a change in Washington’s policy, but a leadership change in the Chinese Communist Party from former Chinese president Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) to Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in 2012, she said.
Under Hu and his predecessors, “China was very much internally focused on its own economic development, on bringing elements of its population out of poverty into the middle class, building its own economy,” she said.
However, with the arrival of Xi, China “dropped the mask or the veil” and “started to really flex its muscles economically, taking coercive measures against other countries militarily, building up its military,” she said.
Denial and deterrence are critical to preventing a potential US-China military conflict over Taiwan, she said.
Denial means convincing Xi that “he can’t be successful using military force to achieve his objectives,” while deterrence through cost and position means that “even if he could succeed, it would be at such great cost that it would be a Pyrrhic victory,” she said.
Xi is focused on economic and political coercion to shrink Taiwan’s international space and pressure it to change its posture, she said.
Xi has also instructed the PLA to continue its buildup to give him military options against Taiwan by 2027, she said.
“And so I believe we, the United States, our allies, Taiwan, the international community, we collectively need to be ready for a moment in the late [20]20s when deterrence may be tested,” Flournoy said. “And we need to be prepared for that and to be confident that President Xi, if he does test the waters of using force, that he will conclude that it’s too risky and too costly and he cannot succeed.”
Despite China’s military posture, Washington still needs to engage with Beijing due to shared interests and challenges and to reduce current level of tensions to stabilize the situation, she said.
Xi’s planned visit to the US for the APEC summit in San Francisco later this month to meet with US President Joe Biden could be a good start, she said.
“I don’t expect there to be any major policy changes on either side. I don’t expect more than somewhat symbolic deliverables, but I do think increasing dialogue, whether it’s restarting military-to-military dialogue or dialogue on arms control, on other issues, I think that’s very, very important,” she said.
Flournoy’s comments were made during a speech at this year’s Taipei Security Dialogue, organized by the government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research think tank.
The manufacture of the remaining 28 M1A2T Abrams tanks Taiwan purchased from the US has recently been completed, and they are expected to be delivered within the next one to two months, a source said yesterday. The Ministry of National Defense is arranging cargo ships to transport the tanks to Taiwan as soon as possible, said the source, who is familiar with the matter. The estimated arrival time ranges from late this month to early next month, the source said. The 28 Abrams tanks make up the third and final batch of a total of 108 tanks, valued at about NT$40.5 billion
Two Taiwanese prosecutors were questioned by Chinese security personnel at their hotel during a trip to China’s Henan Province this month, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said yesterday. The officers had personal information on the prosecutors, including “when they were assigned to their posts, their work locations and job titles,” MAC Deputy Minister and spokesman Liang Wen-chieh (梁文傑) said. On top of asking about their agencies and positions, the officers also questioned the prosecutors about the Cross-Strait Joint Crime-Fighting and Judicial Mutual Assistance Agreement, a pact that serves as the framework for Taiwan-China cooperation on combating crime and providing judicial assistance, Liang
A group from the Taiwanese Designers in Australia association yesterday represented Taiwan at the Midsumma Pride March in Melbourne. The march, held in the St. Kilda suburb, is the city’s largest LGBTQIA+ parade and the flagship event of the annual Midsumma Festival. It attracted more than 45,000 spectators who supported the 400 groups and 10,000 marchers that participated this year, the association said. Taiwanese Designers said they organized a team to march for Taiwan this year, joining politicians, government agencies, professionals and community organizations in showing support for LGBTQIA+ people and diverse communities. As the first country in Asia to legalize same-sex
MOTIVES QUESTIONED The PLA considers Xi’s policies toward Taiwan to be driven by personal considerations rather than military assessment, the Epoch Times reports Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) latest purge of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) leadership might have been prompted by the military’s opposition to plans of invading Taiwan, the Epoch Times said. The Chinese military opposes waging war against Taiwan by a large consensus, putting it at odds with Xi’s vision, the Falun Gong-affiliated daily said in a report on Thursday, citing anonymous sources with insight into the PLA’s inner workings. The opposition is not the opinion of a few generals, but a widely shared view among the PLA cadre, the Epoch Times cited them as saying. “Chinese forces know full well that
RSS