Taiwan and the US can work together to deter Beijing from “starting a fight in the first place,” former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) chairman and managing director Richard Bush said on Wednesday.
At the “Difficult Choices: Building Taiwan’s Resilience for an Uncertain Future” forum in Taipei, Bush said the “not zero” chance of war could likely be averted, particularly given that invading Taiwan could lead to a US intervention.
In light of the high stakes involved with military action, China has opted to take an “intermediate approach” to coerce Taiwan, which comes at a lower risk, Bush said.
Photo: Liu Hsin-de, Taipei Times
However, a war could still break out if Beijing perceives — or misperceives — that Taipei is taking deliberate and irreversible steps toward Taiwanese independence, Bush said.
“So the risk of military conflict is not zero ... and if the [Chinese] People’s Liberation Army [PLA] were to win such a military campaign, life on Taiwan as people know it will disappear — just look at Hong Kong,” he said.
Bush said one way to reduce the risk of conflict is to “credibly reassure Beijing that Taiwan will not cross its red line.”
For example, Bush suggested having the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) remove a clause advocating for independence from its charter.
However, Bush also said that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seemed unwilling to coexist with President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and her DPP-led administration.
While Washington has consistently said that it does not support Taiwan’s independence, Beijing has repeatedly asserted that this is an empty promise in view of the US’ increasing support for Taiwan, Bush said.
That leaves Taiwan and the US with one option: to build a deterrence so strong that Beijing would decide against attacking Taiwan, Bush said.
As of now, Taiwan’s military is not strong enough to hold off the much larger PLA forces long enough for US troops to enter the fight, which would take more than a month, Bush said.
Taiwan faces the choice of whether to take a chance on defending itself with a relatively small force or to build a force that is well-trained and larger than needed, but will effectively enhance deterrence, Bush said.
In addition to increasing the defense budget, the Tsai administration has announced plans to increase mandatory military service to one year, he said.
Despite the extended conscription period upsetting many parents of draftees, the stakes have become too high for the president not to make these tough choices, he added.
To address polarizing policies, Bush suggested that Taiwanese political leaders from across party lines meet to outline a set of principles demonstrating unity.
For example, they could state their joint expectation that Beijing would remain neutral in word and in deed in elections in Taiwan, and respect their results, Bush said.
One other area of cooperation could be agreeing on the acceptable degree of Taiwan’s dependence on China’s economy, and depending on that assessment, creating the appropriate legal, policy and institutional framework, Bush said.
They should make clear that Taiwan would not engage in political talks as long as they are based explicitly or implicitly on Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula, and that any formula should be created through negotiations, not before negotiations even start, Bush said.
The parties could state as a basic principle that any change in Taiwan’s legal identity must be approved by passing constitutional amendments, he said.
Meanwhile, panelist Enoch Wu (吳怡農), director of the Forward Alliance, a civil defense organization, said that while cross-strait engagement is important to minimize misunderstandings, it cannot come at the expense of being prepared.
As part of the efforts to transform conscription and share the load of fostering civilian defense forces with the Ministry of National Defense, Wu suggested revamping the alternative service system by stepping up training on crisis management and providing support to first responders.
On the issue of developing civilian defense forces, Wu said that his alliance has trained thousands of people to build a volunteer corps that can mobilize in case of natural or human-made disasters.
“I’m happy to report to you from the field that if we provide meaningful training, if we respect people’s time, the public will come,” Wu said. “And when they come, it’s not just men, women will be there, too, not just the young retirees.”
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