An academic forum on Friday examined the Ukraine war’s implications for Taiwan, China and the global community, as it marked the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion.
A Russian victory would have disastrous geopolitical military and security consequences for the US and the West, said Lin Cheng- yi (林正義), a research fellow at Academia Sinica’s Institute of European and American Studies.
A victory for Moscow could encourage Russia to continue its aggression in neighboring countries, and embolden Beijing to take action against Taiwan, Lin told the forum, cohosted by Institute for National Policy Research and National Sun Yat-sen University.
Photo: George Tsorng, Taipei Times
If Ukraine holds out against Russian aggression, it could discourage China from trying to take Taiwan by force, but Beijing would never renounce the use of force to achieve unification with Taiwan, he said.
The war in Ukraine has made a growing number of countries concerned about the possibility of a cross-strait war, and prompted the global community to work toward preventing a conflict, he said.
Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Liu Shih-fang (劉世芳), another panelist at the forum, called for the inclusion of Taiwan in regional security dialogues.
A key element in regional stability is to agree that Taiwan should not become a part of China, she said.
Although Taiwan has learned from the war to help it defend against a possible Chinese attack, Beijing is also learning from the situation, other experts said.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has increased its activities around Taiwan to establish a new norm in the Taiwan Strait, said Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), a professor at Tamkang University’s Institute of Strategic Studies.
This is part of China’s “cognitive warfare,” designed to create a perception among business leaders and foreign investors that investing in Taiwan runs the risk of a war, and a Chinese blockade of the nation would disrupt access to energy sources, Lin said.
An implication of the Ukraine war for China is that it should avoid repeating Russia’s mistake of underestimating the enemy, Association of Strategic Foresight research fellow Chieh Chung (揭仲) said.
That Russia failed to create favorable conditions for its offensive at the start of the war, thus allowing the West to increase sanctions and provide Ukraine with arms, has made China realize that any attack on Taiwan must be fierce and swift to succeed, Chieh said.
Taiwan’s military must be able to repel a first wave of attacks from China, and prevent troops and artillery from landing to occupy Taiwan, Lin added.
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