Taiwan is set for a more contentious presidential race focused on rising tensions with China, after low turnout in local elections contributed to the Democratic People’s Party’s (DPP) massive losses.
The DPP won just five of 21 city and county races on Saturday. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) held on to 13 seats, and captured the mayoral seats in Taipei and Taoyuan.
President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) quit as head of the DPP to take responsibility for the losses, which came amid rising public disquiet over cost-of-living issues and an uptick in COVID-19 deaths.
Photo: CNA
However, while the KMT now controls four of Taiwan’s six special municipalities, the turnout in those areas slumped to 59.86 percent, the lowest since 1994, data from the Central Election Commission showed.
For both parties, the results are certain to ignite internal jockeying ahead of the presidential election in 2024, when Tsai is to step down due to term limits.
“Primary season is upon us,” National Chengchi University associate professor Lev Nachman said. “But not all is lost for the DPP by any means, and they are still expected to do well in 2024, when national security and relations with China become much more salient in the election.”
Relations with Beijing are expected to be a key test for candidates vying to succeed Tsai.
The DPP’s poor showing could boost Vice President William Lai (賴清德) over rivals such as his predecessor, Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁), and Taoyuan Mayor Cheng Wen-tsan (鄭文燦), who are more aligned with Tsai.
Lai has previously described himself as a “political worker for Taiwanese independence,” although he has moderated his stance in recent years.
Taipei mayor-elect Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安), 43, is widely viewed as too young to run for president in 2024, and he was helped by a split opposition, increasing the KMT’s vote share by less than 2 percentage points.
More likely contenders in 2024 are KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), who favors much closer relations with China, and re-elected New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), who has been more cautious on calling for dialogue with Beijing.
“Chu will take credit for the KMT’s wins, and will be qualified to run for presidency for sure,” said Arthur Wang, an academic and director of think tank Taiwan NextGen Foundation. “However, Hou is long-favored as the next candidate in the party.”
However, the economy could play a key role in 2024 if growth continues to slow. While Taiwan outperformed most major economies during the COVID-19 pandemic, export orders are shrinking and the misery index, derived from inflation and jobless rates, is near its highest level since 2013.
The TAIEX on Monday fell 1.5 percent, before gaining 1.2 percent yesterday.
“Past records show that the TAIEX rose by 10 percent on average in the month after local elections, as the uncertainty of the vote is removed and investors look ahead to the next year,” Capital Investment Trust Corp fund manager Angela Chuang (莊慧君) said.
Taiwan has received more than US$70 million in royalties as of the end of last year from developing the F-16V jet as countries worldwide purchase or upgrade to this popular model, government and military officials said on Saturday. Taiwan funded the development of the F-16V jet and ended up the sole investor as other countries withdrew from the program. Now the F-16V is increasingly popular and countries must pay Taiwan a percentage in royalties when they purchase new F-16V aircraft or upgrade older F-16 models. The next five years are expected to be the peak for these royalties, with Taiwan potentially earning
STAY IN YOUR LANE: As the US and Israel attack Iran, the ministry has warned China not to overstep by including Taiwanese citizens in its evacuation orders The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) yesterday rebuked a statement by China’s embassy in Israel that it would evacuate Taiwanese holders of Chinese travel documents from Israel amid the latter’s escalating conflict with Iran. Tensions have risen across the Middle East in the wake of US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran beginning Saturday. China subsequently issued an evacuation notice for its citizens. In a news release, the Chinese embassy in Israel said holders of “Taiwan compatriot permits (台胞證)” issued to Taiwanese nationals by Chinese authorities for travel to China — could register for evacuation to Egypt. In Taipei, the ministry yesterday said Taiwan
Taiwan is awaiting official notification from the US regarding the status of the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) after the US Supreme Court ruled US President Donald Trump's global tariffs unconstitutional. Speaking to reporters before a legislative hearing today, Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) said that Taiwan's negotiation team remains focused on ensuring that the bilateral trade deal remains intact despite the legal challenge to Trump's tariff policy. "The US has pledged to notify its trade partners once the subsequent administrative and legal processes are finalized, and that certainly includes Taiwan," Cho said when asked about opposition parties’ doubts that the ART was
If China chose to invade Taiwan tomorrow, it would only have to sever three undersea fiber-optic cable clusters to cause a data blackout, Jason Hsu (許毓仁), a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislator, told a US security panel yesterday. In a Taiwan contingency, cable disruption would be one of the earliest preinvasion actions and the signal that escalation had begun, he said, adding that Taiwan’s current cable repair capabilities are insufficient. The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) yesterday held a hearing on US-China Competition Under the Sea, with Hsu speaking on
RSS