The mayoral campaigns in Taipei and Taoyuan, and to a lesser extent in Hsinchu City, are the “battles to watch” ahead of the local elections next month, political observers have said.
Voters nationwide are to cast ballots in mayoral, county commissioner, and city and county councilor elections on Nov. 26, as well as for local officials down to the borough and village levels.
Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) is to step down after serving two terms, just like the incumbents in Taoyuan and Hsinchu.
Photo: Chang Chia-ming, Taipei Times
Ko has endorsed former Taipei deputy mayor Vivian Huang (黃珊珊), who is running against two high-profile candidates: Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Chen Shih-chung (陳時中). Chiang is a purported great-grandson of Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石), while Chen in July stepped down as health minister and head of the Central Epidemic Command Center, at which he oversaw the country’s COVID-19 response.
The city is considered a KMT stronghold and largely favors candidates from the pan-blue camp.
However, pundits have said they see an opening for the DPP, as Huang, a member of the pan-blue People First Party, might split the camp’s vote.
The most recent poll by My Formosa, released on Friday, showed Chiang leading with 34.3 percent, followed by 27.7 percent for Chen and 22.4 percent for Huang.
Similarly, a poll by TVBS, released on Oct. 30, also showed Chiang ahead, with 37 percent support, compared with 27 percent for Chen and 21 percent for Huang.
A DPP source said with Chen’s two rivals considered pan-blue, he might win on the back of strong support from a united pan-green camp.
However, a KMT source disagreed, saying the KMT believes that either Chiang or Huang will win, as the capital remains a pan-blue stronghold.
This would be despite there being no clear political distinction between Chiang and Huang, the source said, but added that TPP supporters might rather vote for Huang, as many of them are former KMT supporters who feel disappointed with the party.
“Convincing pan-blue voters to vote for Chiang could be his major challenge,” the source said.
In Taoyuan, the picture became more complicated after former Hsinchu mayor Lin Chih-chien (林智堅), who was nominated by the DPP, withdrew from the mayoral race after a plagiarism scandal. He was replaced by DPP lawmaker Cheng Yun-peng (鄭運鵬).
Cheng is running against former premier Simon Chang (張善政) of the KMT, the TPP’s Lai Hsiang-ling (賴香伶), and former DPP lawmaker and founding party member Cheng Pao-ching (鄭寶清).
The race remains hard to predict, with Chang at first apparently benefiting from the plagiarism scandal, but then suffering a setback when the DPP accused him of improper use of information while working on a government project from 2007 to 2009.
Surveys have shown a close race between Chang and Cheng Yun-peng, with Cheng Pao-ching and Lai trailing far behind.
A DPP source said Cheng Pao-ching could take away some pan-green votes from Cheng Yun-peng, and the election result “is becoming more and more unpredictable.”
KMT Legislator Lu Ming-che (魯明哲) said that even though the plagiarism scandal forcing the DPP to change candidates helped Chang, the KMT must campaign hard to win.
The KMT cannot win the race “simply based on the DPP’s mistakes,” Lu said. “Chang is still doing his part by meeting potential voters face to face.”
Former Hsinchu deputy mayor Shen Hui-hung (沈慧虹) of the DPP, Hsinchu City Councilor Lin Ken-jeng (林耕仁) of the KMT and TPP Legislator Kao Hung-an (高虹安) are to face off in an unpredictable race for Hsinchu mayor.
A poll by TVBS released on Oct. 26 showed Kao leading with 34 percent support, followed by Shen with 27 percent and Lin with 21 percent, giving Kao the same 7 percentage point edge she had over Shen in an RW News poll on Oct. 12.
However, a poll released Monday last week by Taiwan-based Broadcasting Corp of China and Gallup market research showed Kao and Shen tied in first place with 25.96 percent support each and Lin third with 14.04 percent, possibly indicating that DPP supporters are falling in line behind their party’s candidate as election day nears.
Former legislator Tsai Pi-ru (蔡壁如) of the TPP, who serves as the party’s campaign strategy head, said her party has a chance to steal a seat or two in these elections, especially in Taipei and Hsinchu.
“The thing we are most worried about is if swing voters do not bother voting on election day because of apathy toward politics,” she said.
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