Beijing is expected to continue flexing its muscles ahead of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) National Congress in the autumn, stoking fears of a cross-strait military crisis.
However, the mood among Taiwanese is mixed.
Three polls released in the past two weeks — by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, the Chinese Association of Public Opinion Research and online media Convergence Media — showed that 60 to 78 percent of respondents were not worried about large-scale live-fire military drills launched by Beijing in the wake of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei on Aug. 2 and 3.
Photo: CNA
“Their actions are the same bluffing and hoaxes as usual,” said Hsu Chiung-chou, a 29-year-old Taipei-based content producer.
Encircling Taiwan and launching missiles over the nation, which the Ministry of National Defense called a “simulated attack,” has sparked no significant reaction among many in a country wearily attuned to Chinese saber-rattling.
“I think the biggest concern of my friends are how to book a restaurant these days. So, that is the Taiwanese attitude toward these exercises,” said Taiwan Parliamentary Human Rights Commission secretary-general Wuer Kaixi (吾爾開希), a former student leader involved in the protests that preceded the Tiananmen Square Massacre in Beijing in 1989.
Cheng Kung University Department of Political Science dean Hung Chin-fu (洪敬富) said domestic political considerations, not preparations for an invasion of Taiwan, were the driving force behind China’s actions.
Military drills and the publication of a white paper reasserting Beijing’s claims over Taiwan as part of its “one China” principle are designed to convince nationalists and military hawks in the country that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) would not make concessions over Taiwan, Hung said.
Chieh Chung (揭仲), a research fellow at the Association of Strategic Foresight, said China’s military could aim to “keep up” tensions until after Xi secures the approval for an unprecedented third term as president.
However, there is concern that Chinese crossings of the Taiwan Strait’s median line could spark a wider conflict.
The unofficial border previously recognized by Taipei and Beijing has so far this month been crossed by 225 Chinese warplanes, defense ministry data showed.
Every time a Chinese warplane crosses the line, Taiwan’s military must scramble fighter jets to intercept the Chinese planes, which increases the risk of collisions or other accidents, Chieh said.
Fears that the line could become a flash point are also present on the streets of Taipei.
A retiree surnamed Chen (陳) told the Central News Agency (CNA) that it has become common for his family to discuss the possibility of a Chinese attack.
“I think we have to be wary and find ways to stop the Chinese military from crossing the median line,” Chen said.
Negotiating with Washington to acquire more aircraft and naval vessels could help ensure that any standoff in the Taiwan Strait does not escalate into a shootout, Chieh said.
“We cannot fire a missile at a Chinese warplane that crosses the median line. All we can do is to find a way to repel it — and that sort of task requires a plane or a naval vessel,” Chieh said.
Chen Shih-min (陳世民), an associate professor in National Taiwan University’s Department of Political Science, said the government should place more emphasis on deterrence instead of defense.
Defending against an attack would become increasingly unrealistic as China’s military capabilities continue to grow, he said.
China’s military posturing could prompt the US to take more action in support of Taipei, he added.
The US Congress could push through the proposed Taiwan policy act, which seeks to overhaul Washington’s policy toward Taipei and designate the nation as a major non-NATO ally of the US, he said.
The deliberation of the bill at the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee has reportedly been postponed to next month amid pushback from the White House.
Nevertheless, Chen Shih-min said US representatives across party lines might back the bill to show they are “taking a tougher line” on China, despite “hesitancy” by US President Joe Biden’s administration.
For some, Washington has already done enough.
“At times I feel Taiwan is a chess piece that is being used by the US for its own political interests,” Hsu Chia-yi, a 40-year-old Taipei resident working in marketing, told CNA.
Even if Taiwan, with the help of the US, successfully defends against a possible Chinese invasion, it would be a “Pyrrhic victory” given the devastating and irreversible economic losses that would occur, Chen Shih-min said, citing the results of a war game funded by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
This sentiment was echoed by a hospitality worker from New Taipei City surnamed Wu (吳).
“If they [China] really do attack us, there isn’t much we can do,” Wu said.
In the meantime, Taiwanese continue to lead their lives as normal. Shares in the country soared by more than 300 points on Aug. 5, the day after China launched missiles over Taiwan proper.
Yet economic normality could be the next target in Beijing’s crosshairs, said Lin Ya-ling (林雅玲), an associate research fellow at the government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
Beijing has already halted sand exports to Taiwan and banned imports of certain Taiwanese agricultural and food products, and China could place similar restrictions on more Taiwanese products or services from the “early harvest list” of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, Lin said.
In June, groupers from Taiwan became the first product from the 500-item list to be banned from entering China.
Taiwanese exporters must consider political risks when selling goods to China, Lin said.
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