By cutting some of its few communication links with the US military, China is raising the risk of an accidental escalation of tension over Taiwan at a critical moment, security analysts, diplomats and US officials said.
China called off planned formal talks involving theater-level commands, defense policy co-ordination and military maritime consultations on Friday as part of its retaliation against US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this week.
In an editorial yesterday, the Chinese Communist Party’s People’s Daily described the response, along with sanctions against Pelosi and her family, as “effective measures that fully demonstrate that China is fully determined and capable of safeguarding national unity and safeguarding ... sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Photo: Reuters
US Naval Postgraduate School security expert Christopher Twomey said that the severing of the communication links is worrying, coming at what he believes is the beginning of a new Taiwan crisis.
China fired ballistic missiles over Taipei as part of four days of unprecedented military drills due to end at noon on Sunday.
“This increased density of forces, in the context of an intensifying crisis, raises the prospect for inadvertent escalation that neither side wants,” Twomey said, speaking in a private capacity.
“That is precisely the time you would want to have more opportunities to talk to the other side ... Losing those channels greatly reduces the ability of the two sides to de-conflict military forces as various exercises and operations continue,” he said.
As Chinese warships, fighter jets and drones maneuver around Taiwan, at least four powerful US vessels, including the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli and the guided missile cruiser USS Antietam are east of Taiwan, Reuters has confirmed.
Prospects are “extremely low for holding talks on risk reduction measures or stability,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
Glaser said that she expects that the specific talks called off this week would resume over time, but “right now, China has to signal toughness and resolve.”
A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Chinese officials had not responded to calls from senior Pentagon officials this week, but that was seen as China showing displeasure over Pelosi’s trip rather than the severing of the channel between senior defense officials, including US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
Austin pushed for improved communication between the rival forces when met Chinese Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe (魏鳳和) on the sidelines of the Shangri-la Dialogue security meeting in Singapore in June.
Asian and Western diplomats said that US military chiefs had been pushing for more frequent theater-level command talks for some time, given China’s growing deployments across Asia, where the US navy has traditionally been the dominant power.
The Pentagon said on Friday that China was overreacting, and the US was still open to building crisis communication mechanisms.
“Part of this overreaction has been strictly limiting its defense engagements when any responsible state would recognize that we need them now the most,” Pentagon acting spokesman Todd Breasseale said.
ANOTHER EMERGES: The CWA yesterday said this year’s fourth storm of the typhoon season had formed in the South China Sea, but was not expected to affect Taiwan Tropical Storm Gaemi has intensified slightly as it heads toward Taiwan, where it is expected to affect the country in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. As of 8am yesterday, the 120km-radius storm was 800km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, moving at 9kph northwest, the agency said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued tonight at the earliest, it said, adding that the storm is projected to be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday. Gaemi’s potential effect on Taiwan remains unclear, as that would depend on its direction, radius and intensity, forecasters said. Former Weather Forecast
As COVID-19 cases in Japan have been increasing for 10 consecutive weeks, people should get vaccinated before visiting the nation, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said. The centers reported 773 hospitalizations and 124 deaths related to COVID-19 in Taiwan last week. CDC Epidemic Intelligence Center Director Guo Hung-wei (郭宏偉) on Tuesday said the number of weekly COVID-19 cases reported in Japan has been increasing since mid-May and surpassed 55,000 cases from July 8 to July 14. The average number of COVID-19 patients at Japan’s healthcare facilities that week was also 1.39 times that of the week before and KP.3 is the dominant
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) working group for Taiwan-related policies is likely to be upgraded to a committee-level body, a report commissioned by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said. As Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is increasingly likely to upgrade the CCP’s Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, Taiwanese authorities should prepare by researching Xi and the CCP, the report said. At the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP, which ended on Thursday last week, the party set a target of 2029 for the completion of some tasks, meaning that Xi is likely preparing to
US-CHINA TRADE DISPUTE: Despite Beijing’s offer of preferential treatment, the lure of China has dimmed as Taiwanese and international investors move out Japan and the US have become the favored destinations for Taiwanese graduates as China’s attraction has waned over the years, the Ministry of Labor said. According to the ministry’s latest income and employment advisory published this month, 3,215 Taiwanese university graduates from the class of 2020 went to Japan, surpassing for the first time the 2,881 graduates who went to China. A total of 2,300 graduates from the class of 2021 went to the US, compared with the 2,262 who went to China, the document showed. The trend continued for the class of 2023, of whom 1,460 went to Japan, 1,334 went to