Taiwan is likely to face an increasing number of challenges in deterring threats from China after the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) yesterday launched four days of live-fire military exercises surrounding the nation, military experts told a panel in Taipei.
The panel, organized by the Institute for National Policy Research, addressed issues that the nation could encounter in the next few weeks following a 19-hour visit by US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which ended on Wednesday.
Beijing in response launched a series of retaliatory actions, including live-fire naval drills in six zones surrounding Taiwan, on the grounds that Pelosi’s visit “violated the ‘one China’ principle stated in the Joint Three Communiques between the US and China.”
Photo: Lo Pei-te, Taipei Times
“The Chinese military exercises will completely nullify a tacit agreement between Taiwan and China that both should avoid engaging in military activities around the median line of the Taiwan Strait,” said Ma Chen-kun (馬振坤), director of National Defense University’s Graduate Institute of China Military Affairs Studies.
“More military aircraft and vessels are expected to cross the median line and operate close to the fringes of our airspace and territorial waters, leaving us with little room to employ ‘deep defense’ strategies,” Ma said.
In addition to developing asymmetric warfare capabilities, Taiwan needs to maintain a certain scale of basic combat power, he said.
“Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is surrounded by sea, and it is absolutely crucial that we maintain a dependable naval and air combat power, and the ability to strike outside the line of sight, which is key in avoiding a blockade by the PLA,” Ma said.
Ma said that China claimed that live-fire military exercises off Taiwan’s north, southwest and southeast coasts were designed to test its joint combat capability as well as the performance of its weaponry.
The drill zones were chosen to test different military capabilities, showing a basic plan that the PLA could adopt if China were to attack Taiwan, Ma said.
“They have stated the purposes of the drills, and the goals they want to achieve, but whether they are capable of accomplishing them would have to be assessed by action plans they set for the drills. So far, we cannot make any assessment in that regard,” he said.
However, Beijing would pay a considerable price if it attacks Taiwan given Taiwan’s capabilities in air defense, sea control and other operations, Ma said.
Last month, Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Chairman Wang Yang (汪洋) said that Beijing prefers unification with Taiwan by peaceful means.
“Wang’s statement showed that China has no intention of turning military exercises into an actual war with Taiwan. The drills are purely militaristic reactions to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan,” Ma said.
While China’s military actions could be used to attempt an economic blockade of Taiwan, it in fact would block access to its own air and sea routes, as well as those of other countries, Institute of National Defense and Security Research research fellow Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) said.
“The Taipei Flight Information Zone is accessed by 1.7 million commercial jets per year, and the Taiwan Strait is a passage to the South China Sea, through which US$5.3 trillion worth of goods transits annually. The sea route is a lifeline to China, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea,” Su said.
“As China has 60 percent of its trade in value traveling by sea, a blockade in the Taiwan Strait would affect China and the globe, and result in higher premiums for war-risk insurance and further disruptions of supply chains. Making it a long-term practice would be difficult,” he said.
Taiwan made the right decision to keep a low profile for Pelosi’s visit, as it helped win support from the international community and highlighted China as a troublemaker, Su said, adding that the government needs a better strategy to address diplomatic predicaments facing the nation.
“The best and most urgent solution is to increase defense spending, which boosts Taiwan’s defense capability, diplomatic weight and economy,” he said.
As trust between the Washington and Beijing is expected to drop significantly following Pelosi’s visit, the US is likely to work toward avoiding military conflicts with China, Institute for National Policy Research executive director Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁) said.
Taiwan is expected to have an increased number of military exchanges with the US, Japan and the Philippines, as China intensifies its efforts to isolate Taiwan militarily, economically and politically following the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress later this year, Kuo said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is aware that Beijing’s treatment of Hong Kong has weakened any possible sentiment for a “one country, two systems” arrangement for Taiwan, and has instructed Chinese Communist Party (CCP) politburo member Wang Huning (王滬寧) to develop new ways of defining cross-strait relations, Japanese news magazine Nikkei Asia reported on Thursday. A former professor of international politics at Fu Dan University, Wang is expected to develop a dialogue that could serve as the foundation for cross-strait unification, and Xi plans to use the framework to support a fourth term as president, Nikkei Asia quoted an anonymous source
LUCKY DATE: The man picked the 10th ‘Super Red Envelope’ in a lottery store in Taoyuan’s Jhongli because he broke up with his girlfriend on Jan. 10 A man who recently broke up with his girlfriend won a NT$1 million (US$32,929) prize in the “NT$20 million Super Red Envelope” lottery after picking a card based on the date of their breakup, Taiwan Lottery Co said yesterday. The man, in his 20s, bought the 10th ticket at a lottery store in Taoyuan’s Jhongli District (中壢), because he broke up with his girlfriend on Jan. 10, the store owner told the lottery company. The “Super Red Envelope” lottery was a limited offering by the company during the Lunar New Year holiday, which ended yesterday. The cards, which cost NT$2,000 each, came with
TOURISM BOOST: The transportation system could help attract more visitors to the area, as the line is to connect multiple cultural sites, a city councilor said Residents in New Taipei City’s Ankeng District (安坑) said the local light rail system might have a positive influence, but raised questions about its practicality. The Ankeng light rail system, which is to commence operations after the Lunar New Year holiday, would cut travel time for commuters from Ankeng to downtown Taipei or New Taipei City by 15 to 20 minutes, the city government said. According to the initial plan, there would be one train every 15 minutes during peak time and additional interval trains would run between the densely populated Ankang Station (安康) and Shisizhang Station (十 四張). To encourage people to
CHAMPION TREES: The team used light detection and ranging imaging to locate the tree, and found that it measured a height of 84.1m and had a girth of 8.5m A team committed to finding the tallest trees in the nation yesterday said that an 84.1m tall Taiwania cryptomerioides tree had been named the tallest tree in Taiwan and East Asia. The Taiwan Champion Trees, a team consisting of researchers from the Council of Agriculture’s Taiwan Forestry Research Institute and National Cheng Kung University (NCKU), in June last year used light detection and ranging (LiDAR) imaging to find the giant tree, numbered 55214, upstream of the Daan River (大安溪). A 20-member expedition team led by Rebecca Hsu (徐嘉君), an assistant researcher at the Taiwan Forestry Research Institute, set out to find the