A Chinese invasion of Kinmen County or another outlying island is “very possible” as Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) looks to divert attention from domestic troubles and fulfill his perceived historical duty, although such a move is unlikely to result in international sanctions if Taiwan proper remains untouched, an official familiar with cross-strait affairs said.
After Xi extends his term as expected later this year, he might face compounding economic and other problems, leading to growing domestic dissatisfaction with his performance, the official said on condition of anonymity.
Xi would likely respond by tightening crackdowns on dissent and shifting the focus to “historical duties,” they said.
Photo: AP
As the Hong Kong issue has already been resolved, the next target would be unifying Taiwan as a way to distract from domestic troubles, they added.
Since taking Taiwan proper would be difficult, smaller outposts would be far more probable targets, such as Kinmen, Matsu, the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島) or Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島), the official said.
China might also take a cue from Russia’s recognition of separatist areas in Ukraine as a pretext for its invasion, and claim that it is seeking to “rejoin” “pro-China” areas with the motherland, they said.
Direct annexation is also possible, considering China’s military estimates that it could take Kinmen in one day, they added.
Public sentiment in Kinmen is generally divided between the two sides, with residents happy about the economic opportunities afforded by China, as well as the political freedom, social equality and healthcare provided by Taiwan, they said.
However, the official voiced concern that Taiwan would be unable to defend the county if China were to invade, while foreign troops would be unwilling to fight for it.
The most likely scenario would be for China to target Kinmen or Matsu, as it would be less likely to trigger international sanctions as compared with attacking Taiwan proper, the official said.
The fighting would be left to Taiwan’s military and the will of the residents, many of whom would likely surrender, they added, citing surveys showing that Kinmen residents are less likely to view China as an enemy than the rest of Taiwanese, while its politicians are typically reluctant to anger Beijing.
Chinese attempts to fold Kinmen into its economic plan for the Fujian region would have an effect on the county, if nothing else reducing its willingness to fight, the official said.
They also called for legal procedures to follow in the event of military conflict, as cross-strait regulations only cover what to do during peacetime, despite the rising threat of war under Xi’s leadership.
A study published by online booking platform Expedia revealed searches for travel to Taipei have ballooned 2,786 percent following the lifting of COVID-19 pandemic travel restrictions due to the city being a “designation dupe” for Seoul. The TikTok trend for duping — referring to substituting a designation for a more inexpensive alternative — helped propel interest in Taipei, it said in a consumer survey titled “Unpack ‘24,” which was conducted from September to October in 14 countries. Location dupes are “every bit as delightful as the tried-and-true places travelers love,” Expedia trend tracker Melanie Fish said of the year’s popular alternatives, which
A small-scale protest that called on the government to cancel its plan to welcome Indian migrant workers in a bid to tackle Taiwan’s labor shortage was held in Taipei yesterday. During the protest, comprised of a few dozen people staged in front of the Presidential Office on Ketagalan Boulevard, the protest’s chief initiator, a woman identified only as “Yuna” said they wanted the central government to reconsider allowing migrant workers from India to enter Taiwan. Most people in Taiwan had little knowledge about the potential plan to allow in Indian migrant workers until a report in the media last month, she
NO RELIGIOUS VISIT: The interior minister said visas were not issued for 218 applicants for a tour of Taiwan organized by a temple due to their own non-response Chinese who had sought to enter Taiwan for a religious event were not granted visas because they were not “religious personnel” and planned to visit places not listed on their group tour’s itinerary, then never supplied supplemental information upon request, the Ministry of the Interior and the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said yesterday. Visas were not issued for 218 of the 239 applicants, as they did not provide additional information or explanations as requested, Minister of the Interior Lin Yu-chang (林右昌) told a committee at the legislature in Taipei. Multiple groups, including the Taiwan Matsu Fellowship, had signed a petition that sought
A military procurement announcement released on Friday shows the purchase of “air/surface” weapons bound for Taitung, likely for the newly purchased Block 70 F-16V jets still awaiting delivery. The announcement shows a NT$17.22 billion (US$548.91 million) purchase agreement signed on Nov. 13 for “aircraft air/surface weapons,” to be delivered to the air force's Seventh Tactical Flight Wing stationed at the Taitung Air Force Base. The sale is scheduled to take place over nine years, with delivery completed by Nov. 30, 2032. Considering the recipient, analysts believe they are likely air-to-air or air-to-surface missiles for the military’s 66 upgraded Block 70 F-16V jets awaiting