A Chinese invasion of Kinmen County or another outlying island is “very possible” as Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) looks to divert attention from domestic troubles and fulfill his perceived historical duty, although such a move is unlikely to result in international sanctions if Taiwan proper remains untouched, an official familiar with cross-strait affairs said.
After Xi extends his term as expected later this year, he might face compounding economic and other problems, leading to growing domestic dissatisfaction with his performance, the official said on condition of anonymity.
Xi would likely respond by tightening crackdowns on dissent and shifting the focus to “historical duties,” they said.
Photo: AP
As the Hong Kong issue has already been resolved, the next target would be unifying Taiwan as a way to distract from domestic troubles, they added.
Since taking Taiwan proper would be difficult, smaller outposts would be far more probable targets, such as Kinmen, Matsu, the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島) or Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島), the official said.
China might also take a cue from Russia’s recognition of separatist areas in Ukraine as a pretext for its invasion, and claim that it is seeking to “rejoin” “pro-China” areas with the motherland, they said.
Direct annexation is also possible, considering China’s military estimates that it could take Kinmen in one day, they added.
Public sentiment in Kinmen is generally divided between the two sides, with residents happy about the economic opportunities afforded by China, as well as the political freedom, social equality and healthcare provided by Taiwan, they said.
However, the official voiced concern that Taiwan would be unable to defend the county if China were to invade, while foreign troops would be unwilling to fight for it.
The most likely scenario would be for China to target Kinmen or Matsu, as it would be less likely to trigger international sanctions as compared with attacking Taiwan proper, the official said.
The fighting would be left to Taiwan’s military and the will of the residents, many of whom would likely surrender, they added, citing surveys showing that Kinmen residents are less likely to view China as an enemy than the rest of Taiwanese, while its politicians are typically reluctant to anger Beijing.
Chinese attempts to fold Kinmen into its economic plan for the Fujian region would have an effect on the county, if nothing else reducing its willingness to fight, the official said.
They also called for legal procedures to follow in the event of military conflict, as cross-strait regulations only cover what to do during peacetime, despite the rising threat of war under Xi’s leadership.
‘NON-RED’: Taiwan and Ireland should work together to foster a values-driven, democratic economic system, leveraging their complementary industries, Lai said President William Lai (賴清德) yesterday expressed hopes for closer ties between Taiwan and Ireland, and that both countries could collaborate to create a values-driven, democracy-centered economic system. He made the remarks while meeting with an Irish cross-party parliamentary delegation visiting Taiwan. The delegation, led by John McGuinness, deputy speaker of the Irish house of representatives, known as the Dail, includes Irish lawmakers Malcolm Byrne, Barry Ward, Ken O’Flynn and Teresa Costello. McGuinness, who chairs the Ireland-Taiwan Parliamentary Friendship Association, is a friend of Taiwan, and under his leadership, the association’s influence has grown over the past few years, Lai said. Ireland is
A saleswoman, surnamed Chen (陳), earlier this month was handed an 18-month prison term for embezzling more than 2,000 pairs of shoes while working at a department store in Tainan. The Tainan District Court convicted Chen of embezzlement in a ruling on July 7, sentencing her to prison for illegally profiting NT$7.32 million (US$248,929) at the expense of her employer. Chen was also given the opportunity to reach a financial settlement, but she declined. Chen was responsible for the sales counter of Nike shoes at Tainan’s Shinkong Mitsukoshi Zhongshan branch, where she had been employed since October 2019. She had previously worked
FINAL COUNTDOWN: About 50,000 attended a pro-recall rally yesterday, while the KMT and the TPP plan to rally against the recall votes today Democracy activists, together with arts and education representatives, yesterday organized a motorcade, while thousands gathered on Ketagalan Boulevard in Taipei in the evening in support of tomorrow’s recall votes. Recall votes for 24 Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers and suspended Hsinchu City mayor Ann Kao (高虹安) are to be held tomorrow, while recall votes for seven other KMT lawmakers are scheduled for Aug. 23. The afternoon motorcade was led by the Spring Breeze Culture and Arts Foundation, the Tyzen Hsiao Foundation and the Friends of Lee Teng-hui Association, and was joined by delegates from the Taiwan Statebuilding Party and the Taiwan Solidarity
TRANSPORT DISRUPTION: More than 100 ferry services were suspended due to rough seas and strong winds, and eight domestic flights were canceled, the ministry said Tropical Storm Wipha intensified slightly yesterday as it passed closest to Taiwan, dumping more than 200mm of rain in Hualien and Taitung counties, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. As of 11am, Wipha was about 210km southwest of Cape Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻) and was moving west-northwest at 27km per hour (kph). The storm carried maximum sustained winds of 101kph and gusts reaching 126kph, with a 150km radius of strong winds, CWA data showed. Wipha’s outer rainbands began sweeping across Taiwan early yesterday, delivering steady rainfall in the east and scattered showers in other regions, forecasters said. More heavy rain was expected, especially in the eastern
RSS