Taiwan’s military strategists have been studying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the country’s resistance for the nation’s own battle strategy in the event that China ever attempts a military takeover.
While Taipei has not reported any unusual activity by the military in China, it is on guard.
Russia’s use of precision missiles, as well as Ukraine’s tactical resistance, despite being outnumbered and outgunned, are being carefully watched in security circles in Taiwan, whose own forces are likewise dwarfed by China’s.
President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has championed the idea of “asymmetric warfare,” to make its forces more mobile and hard to attack, with — for example — vehicle-mounted missiles.
Ma Cheng-kun (馬振坤), director of the Graduate Institute of China Military Affairs Studies at National Defence University in Taoyuan, said that Ukraine had used the same concept with mobile weapons to stymie Russian forces.
“Ukraine’s military has been making full use of asymmetric warfare very effectively and so far successfully holding off Russia’s advance,” said Ma, who is a government adviser on China policy.
“That’s exactly what our armed forces have been proactively developing,” he said, pointing to weapons such as the lightweight and indigenously developed Kestrel shoulder-launched anti-armour rocket designed for close-in warfare.
“From Ukraine’s performance, we can be even more confident in our own,” Ma said.
Taiwan has been developing other missiles, which can reach far into China.
Last week, the Ministry of National Defence said it plans to more than double its yearly missile production capacity to close to 500 this year, including the upgraded version of the Hsiung Feng IIE missile, the longer-range Hsiung Sheng land-attack missile, which military experts say is capable of hitting targets further inland in China.
The ministry said that it has a “close grasp” of the international security situation, and that it is working hard to “improve its armaments and national defense combat capability all the time,” but that the military is “not provocative.”
There are big differences between Taiwan’s and Ukraine’s positions that have offered reassurance.
For example, the Taiwan Strait is a natural barrier, while Ukraine has a long land border with Russia.
Strategists say that Taiwan can also easily detect signs of Chinese military movements and make preparations ahead of an invasion in which China would need to mobilize soldiers and equipment, which could be easily targeted by missiles.
To put boots on the ground, China would have to cross the Strait, “so it’s a much higher risk” for China, said Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
It is not only about hardware.
There is the debate about whether the US would aid Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
Washington practices “strategic ambiguity” on the subject.
Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政), who sits on the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, said that the administration of US President Joe Biden sending a team of top former officials to Taiwan last week should dispel the idea that the US is not to be relied on.
“At this time it sent a message to the other side of the Strait, to Taiwan’s people, that the United States is a trustworthy country,” Lo told a podcast on Tuesday.
Taiwan, a major semiconductor producer, hopes its geographic and supply chain importance makes it different from Ukraine.
However, the Biden administration repeatedly ruling out sending troops to Ukraine has caused unease for some in Taiwan.
“Do people in Taiwan really think now that the West and the United States will still come to save us?” said former Mainland Affairs Council deputy minister Chao Chien-min (趙建民), who is now at Chinese Culture University in Taipei.
Additional reporting by Lee Yimou
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