Taiwan should reopen its borders in three phases, in the first phase allowing people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 from countries with high levels of herd immunity to enter without having to quarantine, National Taiwan University College of Public Health professor Tony Chen (陳秀熙) said yesterday.
Starting in May, Taiwan should adopt a new approach to border openings and mainly consider the herd immunity of travelers’ countries of departure, Chen said.
It should categorize countries’ herd immunity levels as “high,” “medium” or “low,” and let people from high-levels countries come in first, Chen said.
Photo: CNA
Herd immunity levels could be estimated using epidemiologic simulation models that take into consideration vaccination coverage, infection rates, vaccination schedules and the types of vaccines administered, he said.
In the US, the protection from the second and booster shots of COVID-19 vaccines is waning, and only 13 percent of American’s should be considered protected based on vaccination, but as the number of people who have had the virus is increasing, 65 percent of Americans, including many who were not confirmed to have had the virus, are estimated to have antibodies through a previous infection, he said.
This would result in a herd immunity rate of about 78 percent for the US, Chen added.
The UK has a protection rate of 11 percent through vaccination and 63 percent through previous infection, resulting in a herd immunity rate of 74 percent, Chen said, adding that Denmark has a herd immunity rate of 61 percent.
Taiwan’s herd immunity from previous infection is significantly lower at about 0.02 percent, but as 60 to 80 percent of the population have recently received their second dose or booster dose, the nation’s herd immunity level would be about 60 to 80 percent, Chen said.
“The herd immunity of Taiwan is unique, compared with many other countries, but we hope to create a win-win situation, meaning that while the public still has a high level of herd immunity [from vaccination], we are capable of reopening the borders, as long as we are careful not to let imported cases surge and overwhelm our health system,” he said.
Chen said the US and EU should be considered to have high levels of herd immunity, Latin American countries to have medium levels, and African countries and some Asian countries to have low levels.
In the first phase of reopening, travelers who received their second or booster doses from countries with high levels of herd immunity, as well as people who have recovered from a recent COVID-19 infection, should be allowed to enter Taiwan without having to quarantine, he said.
Those who are not fully vaccinated should still have to quarantine, but the number of days required should be reduced based on a rolling review, he said.
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