Taiwan believes that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is likely to be too focused on a key party meeting regarding his tenure as China’s leader to take invasive military action this year, regardless of what happens between Russia and Ukraine, two senior security officials in Taipei said.
The government has assessed the risk of a Chinese attack to be low, even if the US were to be distracted by a war in eastern Europe, the officials said on the condition of anonymity.
Leadership of the Chinese Communist Party is prioritizing domestic stability ahead of a twice-a-decade congress and would not take any action that jeopardizes Xi’s efforts to secure a third term, they said.
Photo: AP
Moreover, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army still lacks the capabilities needed to guarantee the success of any attack on Taiwan, the officials said.
Regardless, China could exploit a shift in global attention toward Ukraine to ramp up military exercises or other efforts to influence political opinion in Taiwan.
Taiwan and Ukraine share similar security concerns, with larger, nuclear-armed neighbors seeking greater influence over their territory and no formal US alliance. The administration of US President Joe Biden believes that China has been gauging the US response to the buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border as a proxy for how the US would deal with more aggressive action by Beijing against Taiwan, reports said last week.
President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has appointed a task force to monitor the Ukraine situation and evaluate its security repercussions on Taiwan.
“We will be on high alert and watch for anyone using this opportunity to make trouble,” Executive Yuan spokesman Lo Ping-cheng (羅秉成) said on Tuesday in response to a question about the significance of the Ukraine crisis to Taipei. “Taiwan has always been on high alert, but will be especially so when the situation in other nations is severe.”
The Ukraine crisis comes at a sensitive time for Xi, who is expected to secure a precedent-breaking third term as party leader in the second half of the year. In a sign of the event’s supreme political importance, several Chinese government agencies have declared maintaining a stable environment for the party congress to be a top priority for this year.
One of the officials cautioned that it was difficult to predict decisionmaking in a political system dominated by one man.
Such leaders could make sudden and seemingly irrational decisions to consolidate power or influence, the official said.
US Pacific Air Forces commander General Kenneth Wilsbach in Singapore said that he was concerned about China trying “to take advantage” of tensions over Ukraine.
“It wouldn’t be surprising if they tried something that would maybe be provocative and see how the international community reacts,” Wilsbach said.
Chinese warplanes made about 960 forays into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone last year, compared with about 380 sorties the year prior, Ministry of National Defense data showed.
Speculation that the Ukraine crisis shows the US’ reluctance to send troops overseas could feed Chinese “cognitive warfare” efforts against Taiwan, the other senior Taiwanese official said.
Taiwan believes that its strategic importance to the US is greater than Ukraine’s, due to its location and vital chip industry, the official said.
The relationship between Taiwan and China “has its own dynamics,” Presidential Office spokeswoman Kolas Yotaka said.
It “is not going to be fundamentally changed by what is happening between Russia and Ukraine today,” she said.
ANOTHER EMERGES: The CWA yesterday said this year’s fourth storm of the typhoon season had formed in the South China Sea, but was not expected to affect Taiwan Tropical Storm Gaemi has intensified slightly as it heads toward Taiwan, where it is expected to affect the country in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. As of 8am yesterday, the 120km-radius storm was 800km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, moving at 9kph northwest, the agency said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued tonight at the earliest, it said, adding that the storm is projected to be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday. Gaemi’s potential effect on Taiwan remains unclear, as that would depend on its direction, radius and intensity, forecasters said. Former Weather Forecast
As COVID-19 cases in Japan have been increasing for 10 consecutive weeks, people should get vaccinated before visiting the nation, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said. The centers reported 773 hospitalizations and 124 deaths related to COVID-19 in Taiwan last week. CDC Epidemic Intelligence Center Director Guo Hung-wei (郭宏偉) on Tuesday said the number of weekly COVID-19 cases reported in Japan has been increasing since mid-May and surpassed 55,000 cases from July 8 to July 14. The average number of COVID-19 patients at Japan’s healthcare facilities that week was also 1.39 times that of the week before and KP.3 is the dominant
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) working group for Taiwan-related policies is likely to be upgraded to a committee-level body, a report commissioned by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said. As Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is increasingly likely to upgrade the CCP’s Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, Taiwanese authorities should prepare by researching Xi and the CCP, the report said. At the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP, which ended on Thursday last week, the party set a target of 2029 for the completion of some tasks, meaning that Xi is likely preparing to
US-CHINA TRADE DISPUTE: Despite Beijing’s offer of preferential treatment, the lure of China has dimmed as Taiwanese and international investors move out Japan and the US have become the favored destinations for Taiwanese graduates as China’s attraction has waned over the years, the Ministry of Labor said. According to the ministry’s latest income and employment advisory published this month, 3,215 Taiwanese university graduates from the class of 2020 went to Japan, surpassing for the first time the 2,881 graduates who went to China. A total of 2,300 graduates from the class of 2021 went to the US, compared with the 2,262 who went to China, the document showed. The trend continued for the class of 2023, of whom 1,460 went to Japan, 1,334 went to