Scientific data suggest that a gradual lifting of a nationwide level 3 COVID-19 alert can be considered, National Taiwan University College of Public Health professor Tony Chen (陳秀熙) said yesterday.
The nation has been under the level 3 alert since May 19.
With the nation’s daily number of local infections dropping, a case can be made for downgrading the level 3 alert, Chen told an online news conference on YouTube with other faculty members.
Photo: Screen grab from YouTube
Despite the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants across the globe, increased vaccination rates have curbed the number of new infections and deaths, as observed in Europe and the Americas, he said, adding that Taiwan’s inoculation rate is expected to reach 20 percent by the end of this month as it receives more vaccines.
It has been one month since the nation’s effective reproduction number, or Rt, has dropped below one, Chen said.
A cluster infection caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Pingtung County has been stopped from spreading to other municipalities, while other cluster infections have also been kept under control, he said.
Photo: Liu Hsin-de, Taipei Times
As people arriving from abroad are required to undergo three COVID-19 tests — upon arrival, during quarantine and upon ending quarantine — this strategy can curb virus transmission from abroad, he added.
The college in late May introduced an index for evaluating whether the level 3 alert should be eased, he said.
The index is based on the following formula: the number of confirmed cases divided by the number of recovered cases, with the quotient multiplied by one minus the nation’s COVID-19 death rate, and the product minus one to arrive at the final figure.
The government can consider lowering the alert level when the index falls below 0.5, he said, adding that the index is now at 0.32.
Chen also assessed the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures, such as wearing masks and social distancing, as well as vaccination and virus testing rates.
If the government continues to boost COVID-19 vaccination rates while promoting high-precision virus tests, the alert level can be downgraded, he said.
However, Chen said his team is opposed to promoting universal screening on local communities.
The government should categorize public facilities based on their virus transmission risks, he said.
When proper NPI measures are in place, only employees of public facilities should undergo regular high-precision virus tests, but when there are no NPI measures, both employees and visitors should undergo tests, he said.
Minister of Health and Welfare Chen Shih-chung (陳時中), who heads the Central Epidemic Command Center, said later yesterday that there are many ways to calculate the Rt value, adding that based on the center’s calculations, the Rt number has dropped below 1 for a few weeks, and is currently at 0.69.
Additional reporting by Lee I-chia
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