There is a rivalry between China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Russia’s Central Asia strategy, columnist Lu Ssu-pin (魯斯濱) said in Taipei yesterday, while another expert said the future of the initiative would “determine the fate of Uighurs in Xinjiang.”
Lu made the comment at a panel discussion held by the Taiwan East Turkestan Association and moderated by association president Ho Chao-tung (何朝棟).
Lu, as well as Li Fu-chung (李福鐘), an associate professor at National Chengchi University’s Graduate Institute of Taiwan History, and Taiwan Thinktank advisory committee member Tung Li-wen (董立文), were invited as speakers to discuss the history of East Turkestan, now known as China’s Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.
Photo: George Tsorng, Taipei Times
Russia has complicated feelings about Xinjiang, Lu said.
For Russia, the region is already being effectively controlled by China and as a result, in terms of Russia’s China strategy, Xinjiang is a place that no longer holds much “obvious strategic value,” he said.
This is why strategists in Kazakhstan and Russia have responded to reports of concentration camps in Xinjiang with a relatively cold attitude, Lu said.
“The most direct and obvious strategic confrontation between Russia and China is reflected in Kazakhstan,” he said, adding that the Central Asian country, which is geographically located between Russia and China, is also an indicator of relations between Moscow and Beijing.
Kazakhstan has not been a priority in US foreign policy for many years, Lu said, adding that it is unlikely that the US would become involved in matters there, as it would be slightly difficult for the US to get involved even in Belarus.
China was not that interested in Central Asia before 2013, but it later proposed the Belt and Road Initiative, he said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s formation in 2010 of a customs union among Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan was aimed at curtailing China’s influence, Lu said.
However, due to factors such as plummeting oil prices, the COVID-19 pandemic and the US presidential election, Russia has temporarily paused its Central Asia strategy, he said, adding that Moscow is observing the international situation before it adjusts its strategy.
Few people in Taiwan have studied Xinjiang over the past two decades, while there is ample Mandarin and English-language material on Tibet, Tung said.
While the Belt and Road Initiative wields considerable economic power, it remains to be seen how long that power would last overseas, he said.
When other countries express diplomatic support for China and stand with Beijing not because of shared values, but for interests, they expect to receive benefits in return, Tung said.
He said he does not think China’s economic strategy will last long due to the country’s internal socioeconomic problems and the US-China trade dispute.
The development of the Belt and Road Initiative will “determine the fate of Uighurs in Xinjiang,” he said.
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