Military contingency plans for an invasion of Taiwan by China must be thoroughly revamped if the national defense system is to survive the onslaught, a military source says.
The traditional military response to missile attacks by China on Taiwan’s west coast is for the commander-in-chief to order the navy to seek shelter out at sea away from the Taiwan Strait and for the air force to seek refuge in underground bunkers at its Jiashan base in Hualien and its Shihtzushan base in Taitung, preserving the majority of the nation’s combat capabilities from missile attacks.
However, an anonymous source said that once the navy entered the Pacific, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, instead of going in pursuit, would set up a blockade to the north and south of Taiwan. Efforts to secure command of the sea and to intercept amphibious landing craft would be unsuccessful as the navy would be unable to penetrate the blockade and reach the Taiwan Strait.
“The whole navy would be debilitated just trying to break through [the blockade],” the source said.
As to the air force evacuation to the east coast, the source said, that contingency would also meet with problems.
“Last year’s war exercise revealed that the enemy had anticipated the move,” the source said.
The exercise, which was part of the Han Kuang annual series of exercises, simulated intermittent missile attacks on the Jiashan base and Chih-hang base runways, as well as bombing raids by long-range fighters from the PLA Air Force (PLAAF), such as the Su-27.
“Renewed attacks on almost repaired runways would greatly limit the air force’s capability to launch an effective air-to-air deterrent,” the source said.
Post-exercise analysis showed that if current contingency plans were followed, concentrated fire on the East Rift Valley would ground the air force altogether, the source said.
Not evacuating as per the contingency plan would force the PLAAF to divert its firepower and attack Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Cingcyuangang, Chiayi, Tainan, Gangshan, Siaogang, Pingtung, Hualien and Taitung air bases.
“Building bunkers in the west [of Taiwan] would greatly increase the survivability of our fighter aircraft,” the source said.
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