The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is likely to lose three seats in next month’s local elections, while the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will likely gain one, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said yesterday.
The center predicted that the DPP would secure four seats in the “three-in-one” elections next month, the KMT 10, independent candidates one and that the remaining two results were uncertain.
Three of the counties and cities now up for grabs are governed by the DPP; 13 are under KMT rule; and the other is governed by the New Party.
In the Dec. 5 elections, voters will select 17 mayors and commissioners, 592 county and city councilors and 319 city and township heads.
Taipei County, Kaohsiung County, Taichung County, Taichung City, Tainan City and Tainan County do not feature in next month’s polls as they will either be directly upgraded to the status of a special municipality or integrated into a special municipality next year. They will hold their elections simultaneously with those for the heads of the two existing special municipalities — Taipei City and Kaohsiung City — next year.
Prediction markets are markets where payoffs are tied to future events. The center makes predictions on a variety of subjects, including politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment. Members can tender virtual bids on the events and the bidding price serves as a reference for predicting the results.
On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the possibility that the DPP would win in Yilan, Yunlin and Pingtung counties was high, with all exceeding NT$90. The price in Chiayi County was NT$88.
The chances that independent candidates would win in Hualien County were NT$95, a dramatic lead over the KMT candidate’s NT$2.20.
KMT Legislator Fu Kun-chi (傅崑萁), who is running as an independent, has been leading in various polls. Other candidates include KMT nominee Tu Li-hua (杜麗華) and Chang Chih-ming (張志明), who withdrew from the KMT to run as an independent.
As eastern Taiwan has long been a KMT stronghold, the DPP did not nominate a candidate for Hualien this year, choosing instead to support Chang.
The center said the situations in Hsinchu and Changhua counties were uncertain as the elections seemed tight.
The odds that the DPP candidate would win in Hsinchu County were more than those of the KMT, but less than those of independent candidates. Among the hopefuls in the Hsinchu County race are KMT-nominated Legislator Chiu Ching-chun (邱鏡淳) and Hsinchu County Council Speaker Chang Pi-chin (張碧琴), who was expelled by the KMT for registering for the election.
The plausibility that the KMT candidate, incumbent Changhua County Commissioner Cho Po-yuan (卓伯源), would win in Changhua County was higher than that of his rival, DPP Legislator Wong Chin-chu (翁金珠), at NT$48 and NT$40 respectively.
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