Chinese democracy activist turned economist Wilson Chen (陳破空) says the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will try to gain a propaganda advantage from the planned visit to Taiwan by Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) Chairman Chen Yunlin (陳雲林).
“Beijing will tell the Chinese people that the visit is a victory for China’s Taiwan policy of waving a military stick while dangling an economic carrot. Taiwanese people should protest the visit,” the US-based academic said in an interview on cross-strait relations with the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper) on Saturday.
“Rather than exaggerate the economic aspects of the visit, Taiwan’s government should insist on talking about Taiwan’s strengths — democracy and human rights. If the government acts in a cowardly manner, China will look down on Taiwan even more, believing that it can and will have the country under its control,” he said.
PHOTO: TZOU JING-WEN, TAIPEI TIMES
“The CCP will view the visit as a huge success and use it to keep fooling the Chinese people. It will claim that the CCP regime is as strong as a rock, since it can force Taiwan to yield after regaining both Hong Kong and Macao and stabilizing Tibet,” he said.
On the recent toxic milk scandal, “the flawed system behind China’s toxic milk powder and counterfeit goods has harmed not only China itself but the whole world, including Taiwan,” he said.
“The CCP government refuses to apologize, but the Chinese people cannot protest because they have always been deprived of their right to do so. As a democracy, Taiwan should stage a protest over the health and safety issue and demand an apology,” Chen Pokong said.
“Taiwan’s government is eager to boost its economy, and it is pinning its hopes on doing business with China. It expects that direct flights, Chinese tourists, preferential measures and setting up a relationship similar to that of the Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement [CEPA] can remedy all its problems,” he said.
“But when you ask for a favor, you may also be taken advantage of. The CCP regime does not do someone a favor easily, and when it does it does it for a purpose. The purpose this time is to try and bait and hook Taiwan, first economically and then politically,” he said.
“Beijing is unlikely to grant Taipei’s requests instantly, and will instead dangle them like a carrot in front of a donkey. For example, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan can be decided completely by the Chinese side,” Chen said.
He said Taiwan had not depended on China for its economic takeoff in the 1970s.
“Today, China is important because of two factors. First, China is Asia’s biggest market, and it keeps growing, so many countries want to do business with it. Second, China has seriously limited Taiwan’s diplomatic space, causing it diplomatic difficulties while affecting its market as well. If Taiwan wants to develop economic and trade relations with China, those ties should be based on equality and dignity and be propelled by market forces. It is not necessarily appropriate for the government to take the lead,” he said.
The inevitable result of relaxing restrictions on cross-strait business will be that Taiwanese capital will flow to China, and China’s labor and products will flow to Taiwan, because Taiwan is a developed economy and China is a developing one, he said.
China has been doing its best to attract Taiwanse capital and this trend will not change unless the CCP makes a political effort to reverse it, but Taiwan would pay a considerable political price, he said.
“The new government [in Taiwan] has spoken and acted based to its stated intentions, but China has not brought any benefit to Taiwan’s economy. Even Chinese tourist arrivals have been lower than expected, he said. “This is because China has been relaxing economic measures in a calculated way so as to keep Taiwan under control, so Taiwanese people should not be too hopeful.”
“If the government finds that high-tech exports to China or an influx of Chinese labor are not good for Taiwan’s economy, it should adopt a ‘no haste, be patient’ policy,” he said.
“Taiwan’s real strength lies not in its economy and trade, but in its democracy, freedom and human rights,” he said. “In cross-strait relations Taiwan should take advantage of its strengths and avoid its shortcomings. If the government tries to compete with China in economy and trade, Taiwan will find itself in a passive position in which China holds the power to dominate the situation. The outcome will be that Taiwan would be swallowed up by China.”
“Taiwan should insist on actively promoting democracy and human rights rather than avoiding the matter. President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) talked about the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident and the Tibet issue before the election, but since he took power Ma’s administration has become weak and even said that Taiwan should not see itself as a beacon of freedom and democracy. This shows a lack of understanding of China and the CCP,” Chen Pokong said.
“If the Ma administration knew the CCP better, it should have criticized Beijing for human rights abuses,” he said, adding that “when the two sides began exchanges, Taiwan should have delivered a list of political prisoners and demanded that China release them.”
“The government should stick to its position on the Tiananmen and Tibet issues because Taiwan’s economy and safety rely on the democratization of China, otherwise Taiwan’s future will come under the sway of tyranny,” he said.
“Taiwan’s government should focus on the country’s long-term development and decide on strategies to counter China’s autocratic regime. If the government thinks showing goodwill toward the Chinese regime will bring results, it should be aware that many others have tried the same thing, but China is still as oppressive as ever,” he said.
“Taiwan should not fear negative consequences if it boldly declares its position. If Taiwan is overly cautious and cowardly, the CPP will look down upon it,” Chen said.
“Under the influence of the US financial crisis, the Chinese economy might lose its critical leverage in foreign investment and trade. Its labor costs will gradually increase as its land resources decrease over time. The appreciation of the yuan will slow China’s export momentum and this will be a big turning point for the country’s economy,” he said.
“With so many Chinese-made fake products spreading all over the world, China’s reputation has been seriously damaged. The milk powder scandal has halted the production of dairy products in China. Therefore it is dangerous for the government to tie Taiwan’s economy to China’s or to regard Taiwan’s economy as a part of cross-strait economy and look to China to solve its problems,” he said.
“Data shows that Chinese banks are black holes, and outsiders do not know how many questionable accounts there are. China’s real estate and stock market bubbles will eventually burst. If the world is experiencing a bubble economy, then the Chinese economy is the biggest bubble of all. Once the bubble bursts, any economies related to China will be hurt, so Taiwan needs to be very cautious,” he said.
NATIONAL SECURITY: Authorities are working to confirm the identities of the military personnel involved and investigating possible illegal conduct and regulatory violations Authorities are probing possible national security implications after Kinmen police and immigration officers on Sunday found a Chinese woman allegedly posing as a tourist while engaging in prostitution involving more than 10 military personnel. The woman, surnamed Chen (陳), has since been deported, authorities said, adding that investigators are still working to confirm the identities of those implicated, as the records only listed code names and aliases. The case stemmed from a report received by the Kinmen District Prosecutors’ Office on Friday last week from the Jinhu Precinct of the Kinmen County Police Bureau. On Sunday, police, along with the National Immigration
GLOBALGIVING: ‘ Caving to external pressure is not acceptable for an organization that has cultivated justice reform and human rights for 30 years,’ one NGO said A slew of non-government organizations (NGOs) have withdrawn from the GlobalGiving fundraising platform after it announced it would use “Chinese Taipei” instead of “Taiwan” from next month. The Taiwan Good Rice Association wrote on Facebook on Friday that it was informed on April 28 via a teleconference call of the change, which was made because the platform wanted to operate in China. Taiwan Good Rice is to terminate all cooperative relationships with GlobalGiving in response to the platform’s “unilateral and non-negotiable” decision to remove references to Taiwan, the NGO said. “Taiwan is in the official name of Taiwan Good Rice Association and the
HEAVY WEATHER: Typhoon Jangmi is due to crash straight into the Ryukyus as airlines look to shift flights to larger aircraft or cancel flights to Okinawa entirely Taiwan’s international air carriers announced flight adjustments over the weekend as Typhoon Jangmi is forecast to hit the Ryukyu Islands today and tomorrow. The Central Weather Administration (CWA) upgraded Jangmi from a tropical storm to a typhoon at 8am yesterday, with the eye located 580km south of Naha city. It was moving north at 19kph. Today, China Airlines’ CI-120, CI-121, CI-122 and CI-123 flights between Taoyuan and Naha, Okinawa, have been canceled as well as CI-132 and CI-133 between Kaohsiung and Naha. EVA Air’s BR-112, BR-113, BR-186 and BR-185 flights between Taoyuan and Naha are also canceled. Low-cost carrier Tigerair Taiwan canceled IT-230,
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) yesterday briefed her party’s Central Standing Committee regarding her scheduled visit to the US between Monday next week and June 16, saying that her purpose would be to persuade the US that the Republic of China (ROC) Constitution was a “one China” constitution that would foster stable and peaceful cross-strait relations. The ROC Constitution is the most important defense for all Taiwanese citizens, as it upholds our democracy and has contributed to our robust economy, which aligns with international and US interests, she said. “We would not be troublemakers and drag the US under,”
RSS