The US government’s freeze on arms sales to Taiwan will have a number of consequences for both parties, former US deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs Randall Schriver said yesterday.
Speaking to a gathering of the Taipei Foreign Correspondents Club in Taipei, Schriver said that any halt in weapons procurement was likely to have an exponential effect on Taiwan’s ability to defend itself.
Arms sales “are not something you can turn on or off like a spigot,” he said.
A prolonged arms freeze would also affect the ability of President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) government to negotiate with China on Ma’s key election platforms, such as increasing Taiwan’s international space and the signing of a cross-strait peace accord, he said.
The US, meanwhile, will have to deal with credibility issues if it refuses to follow through after offering and approving the sales of the systems.
Mark Stokes, Schriver’s colleague at the Project 2049 Institute think tank and a former country director for China and Taiwan in the Office of the US Secretary of Defense, also present at the talk, echoed Schriver’s remarks.
He said that the credibility of those in the US establishment that for years had accused Taiwan of not taking its own defense seriously was now being called into question, as the freeze had brought about a “reversal of roles.”
Stokes also said that Wednesday’s military helicopter crash in Taoyuan County had highlighted the importance of continually upgrading military equipment.
Asked whether the freeze could possibly extend into the term of the next US president, Schriver said the camps of both Republican candidate John McCain and Democratic nominee Barack Obama had made it clear to the Bush administration that they did not want to inherit such a situation.
He added that the best solution would be for the present US government to unblock the sales. A failure to do so would prove very costly for any new administration in terms of its relations with Beijing, as the last decade has seen China’s influence in the US capital increase tremendously, Schriver said.
He said that the combination of “highly skilled, articulate Chinese diplomats,” US corporations with interests in China, lobbying firms employed by Beijing and old China friends, such as former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, made it difficult for the US government to pursue policies deemed favorable to Taiwan.
Commenting on the state of relations between Taipei and Washington, Schriver said that the nadir reached during former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) term was not solely down to Chen, as actors in Washington had overestimated their understanding of Taiwan and contributed to the problems.
The cost of rebuilding ties with Taiwan would also be higher now that China has such a powerful presence, he added.
He said that although the Ma government had made a big effort to improve the cross-strait situation, what it was doing to strengthen ties with the US and Japan was still unclear.
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