Mon, Mar 24, 2008 page3

• Post-Election 2008: ANALYSIS: US pleased with Taiwan vote, some doubts remain

  CHANGE Washington lauded Taiwan for its successful elections and some corners of the White House might have sighed in relief. Others were not as enthusiastic

  • By Charles Snyder / STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON
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  The administration of US President George W. Bush was clearly pleased with the results of the presidential election in Taiwan, but there may be some concern over whether president-elect Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) will make concessions to China that could affect the trilateral relations between Washington, Taipei and Beijing, observers said.

  Following eight years of the Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) presidency, whose end has been marked by increasing bilateral frictions, the Bush administration is certain to welcome what they expect to be a calmer period ahead.

  However, a sizable group of Taiwan's champions in the US Congress, who support independence for Taiwan and Taiwan's entry into the UN, are just as likely to be unhappy with Ma's big win and the failure of the referendums on Taiwan's entry into the UN.

  And some conservatives in Washington are likely to remain wary that Ma will adopt what they consider an "unhealthy" pro-China stance.

  In the end, however, some observers feel that not much is likely to change -- with the exception, of course, of the bad blood that has grown between presidents Bush and Chen.

  Less than two hours after Saturday's election results were announced, Bush issued an effusive statement of praise for Taiwan and US-Taiwan relations, in which he called Taiwan "a beacon of democracy in Asia and the world" and proclaimed that "the maintenance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the welfare of the people on Taiwan remain of profound importance to the United States."

  "I would take that as a good sign for Taiwan that the president himself wants to have a better relationship," said Dan Blumenthal, a former Pentagon official involved in Taiwan and China policy and co-author of a recent study on the future of US-Taiwan relations.

  Bush also called on Taiwan and Beijing to seek better cross-strait relations. But Blumenthal was less sanguine.

  "I wouldn't be too enthusiastic in Washington that this will improve cross-strait relations tremendously," he said. "There is only so far that any president of Taiwan can go in that respect."

  In a statement after the election, the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO) expressed its appreciation to the US government for its support of Taiwan.

  The office, Taiwan's unofficial embassy in Washington, said it "would like to express its gratitude to the US government and people for their long-standing support of Taiwan's democratic development, and hopes that the US government and its people will continue to support the efforts of the new president to consolidate and deepen the substantial relations between our two countries."

  Whatever happens now, there is a need for early bilateral communications, observers feel.

  Michael Fonte, the Washington consultant to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), said the Bush administration would probably seek "immediate and close conversations" with Ma or his aides, perhaps in Washington, to discuss the new president's positions and plans regarding relations with China and the US.

  "There has been some concern on the part of some people here [in Washington] that he seemed to be positioning Taiwan as almost a neutral space between China and the United States," Fonte said.

  "They will want to be clear where this leaves us in terms of military-to-military relations, defense relations and deterrence. The people who worry about the defense side of the issue would like to be much clearer with Mr Ma," he said.

  Blumenthal also urged such early communications to "talk about the top-three things they want to get done before the Bush administration leaves," which includes arms sales, the speeding up of a free-trade agreement and cross-strait trade normalization. The arms sales, Blumenthal said, should include unfreezing of Taiwan's request for dozens of advanced F-16 fighter jets and talks on possible sales of diesel submarines to Taiwan.

  Such agreements would be part of "Bush's legacy in terms of his Taiwan policy," Blumenthal said.

  The former defense official conceded that there were concerns in the administration when Ma visited Washington in 2006 that his talk about a peace agreement with China would compromise US-Taiwan relations. But hel plays down such concerns now.

  "The Taiwan body politic has changed and there's only so far you can go in negotiations with China on the issues that will decide Taiwan's future," he said.

  Noting Ma's campaign criticism of China over Tibet and other statements distancing himself from China, Blumenthal said: "I wouldn't expect major changes in Taiwan in regards to China."

  Jacob Chang, a representative of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in Washington, said the US government would be "very happy" with the results of the election.

  "Before the election, Washington said it will work with whoever is elected by the Taiwan people. I believe Washington should be very happy with the election, not only because of the results, but because of the process, which was peaceful and free, and which I think is more important than the results," he said.

  Chang said he was not aware of any efforts by the Bush administration to hold early talks with Ma.

  "I think the channels of communication are pretty smooth, both here and in Taipei," he said.

  As to whether Jason Yuan (袁健生), the KMT chief representative in Washington, would succeed Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) as Taiwan's representative, Chang declined to speculate.

  "We have a process. The government has a democratic process," he said.

  Yuan has always denied he was seeking the post, although he is very familiar with Washington, having served in the city years earlier and is well respected in town.
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