Sun, Mar 23, 2008 page3

• Presidential election 2008: Losing Ticket: ANALYSIS: Hsieh had odds stacked against him, analysts say

  • By Shih Hsiu-chuan / STAFF REPORTER
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  With the odds heavily stacked against him as a result of public displeasure with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration's performance over the past eight years, DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) yesterday succumbed to an almost inevitable defeat.

  Frank Liu (劉正山), an assistant professor in the Graduate Institute of Political Science at National Sun Yat-sen University, said it was no surprise that the DPP had been defeated "because the economy was central to the presidential election."

  "After the previous [legislative] elections, I didn't think the DPP could recover in time for this election because voters always tend to vent their frustration in the event of an economic slowdown, an ailing stock market and rising commodity prices," Liu said.

  

  Supporters of Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Frank Hsieh hang their heads after it became apparent that Hsieh would lose the election yesterday. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) won more than 58 percent of the vote.

  PHOTO: WANG MIN-WEI, TAIPEI TIMES

  Tseng Chien-yuan (曾建元), an assistant professor of public administration at Chung Hua University, attributed the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) success to its close-knit, long-established local networks and ability to mobilize voters.

  Tseng said that although the DPP had enjoyed a majority in the legislature in 2001 and had held the presidential office for eight years, the KMT had consolidated its position in the 2005 local government election and January's legislative elections.

  The election result showed that KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's (馬英九) "long-stay program," during which he spent time in rural areas around the country, had helped reduce the distance between him and the public and also given KMT vote captains practice in mobilizing supporters, Tseng said.

  "Every time Ma made a visit to a township, it created an opportunity for KMT vote captains to mobilize supporters," he said.

  In comparison with Ma, or President Chen Shui-bian during his (陳水扁) re-election campaign in 2004, Frank Hsieh spent less time soliciting votes in rural areas, said Hsieh Chih-chung (謝志忠), a DPP campaigner in Taichung County.

  "In rural areas outside Taipei City, the mobilization efforts of local factions played a far greater role in determining electoral outcomes than campaign advertising," he said. "During this campaign, KMT vote captains and local politicians made a great effort, but this was not the case with the DPP."

  The DPP ticket managed narrow victories in Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Tainan County, Kaohsiung County and Pingtung County.

  A DPP supporter in Kaohsiung City, who wished to remain anonymous, said that vote-buying was a major factor.

  In the run-up to the election, Frank Hsieh was thought to have narrowed the gap to his rival. Frank Hsieh himself often referred to the possibility of a comeback win.

  Liu said Frank Hsieh's argument that voters should support him to balance the KMT's domination of the legislature had produced results.

  "The appeal made pan-green supporters, who initially might have wanted to punish Chen as they did in January's elections, think again," Liu said.

  "`One-party domination' is something people in Taiwan are all-too familiar with and the thought of it happening again scares many people. So people understood what Frank Hsieh was getting at, especially intellectuals," he said.

  Analysts said Frank Hsieh's continuous criticism of Ma's main platform, a "cross-strait common market" with China, was a strategy to win over pan-green supporters who were disappointed with the DPP's performance in terms of the economy and allegations of corruption.

  Frank Hsieh said the cross-strait common market was in effect a "one China market" that would pose significant threats to the livelihood of Taiwanese workers and farmers, and the health and safety of consumers.

  Frank Hsieh said the common market, which facilitates the free movement of capital, workers, services and goods, would result in a higher unemployment rate and lower salaries in Taiwan, and eventual unification with China.

  "The `one China market' argument appeared to have carried some weight with voters because these are problems that have a direct impact on their lives," Liu said.

  Analysts said China's recent crackdown on protests in Tibet had played a limited role in the election.

  As the incident took place just a few days before the election, "what both candidates said about Tibet was likely to be interpreted as campaign rhetoric," Liu said.

  "Tibet is not an issue that most people in Taiwan have paid close attention to, and thus the incident struck many people as being irrelevant," he said.

  Analysts said Frank Hsieh had achieved mixed success with his allegations about Ma's green card.

  "The green card issue consolidated deep-green supporters and boosted the turnout of light greens," said Tsai Fu Hung-der (傅恆德), professor of political science at Tunghai University. "But for blue supporters, the green card issue was seen as the ethnicity card in disguise -- a DPP election gimmick."
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