The political paralysis currently troubling President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) makes it difficult for him to push ahead with constitutional change through a referendum before his tenure ends in 2008, a forum on US-Taiwan relations said yesterday.
Academics and former officials attending a forum held by the Foundation on International and Cross Strait Studies on the future prospects of US-Taiwan relations yesterday agreed that Chen's low political approval rating made it unlikely the pro-independence constitutional changes would happen.
Liu Shih-fang (劉世芳), a former Cabinet secretary-general of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party administration, said that the involvement of Chen's son-in-law in a series of scandals had seriously thwarted the president's attempts to change the Constitution, which is something "the Americans can feel relieved about."
Edward Chen (陳一新), a professor at the Institute of American Studies at Tamkang University said Chen's low approval rating made him more susceptible to making political compromises with the US.
"It is a time when Chen very much has to rely on US support to keep him in power and therefore makes it easier for the US to rein him in, which can be seen in Chen's reiteration of the `four noes' and assurances that constitutional change would not touch on the independence issue," he said.
Edward Chen said the political situation also made it easier for the US to ask the president to accelerate relaxation on cross-strait flights.
"After the normalization of cross-strait charter flights, the US is likely to want Chen to realize direct air transportation," he said.
Commenting on the US' role in the domestic political situation, Edward Chen said American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Raymond Burghardt's visit to the president amid the recall move initiated by the opposition parties had helped Chen to recover somewhat.
"The US' support for Chen at this time would be beneficial to its interests in the short term ? one of its reasons being that the US is concerned about the unpredictability of Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) if she were to take over power once Chen was recalled," he added.
On cross-strait relations, Dennis Hickey, a professor of political science at South West Missouri State University in the US, said Chen's pro-independence posture has contributed to China adopting a more realistic attitude toward Taiwan.
Hickey noted the increase in the number of Chinese officials speaking of preserving the status quo rather than pushing for unification and a decrease of talk about "one country, two systems." He also said that the recent improvement in cross-strait economic exchanges revealed such a posture change within the Chinese leadership.
"It looks like there is a split within the leadership over the effectiveness of the hostile policy towards Taiwan... President Chen Shui-bian may have helped contribute to change in the PRC and this reassessment, as it made them fear if they don't do something to change their policy, they'll lose everything," Hickey said.
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