Arms procurement will be a test case for Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) to build personal credibility with the US in the run-up to the 2008 presidential election, political analysts said yesterday.
Although Ma's popularity is rising in the wake of the KMT's landslide victory in Saturday's elections for local government chiefs, a more challenging task for Ma ahead is how to initiate relations with the US, which must have certain expectations of him, executive director of the Institute for National Policy Research Lo Chih-cheng (
Since arms procurement is the issue that the US government is now most concerned about, Ma will have to deal with it very carefully given his potential as a future leader of Taiwan, Lo said.
"If Ma is really eying the 2008 presidential election, the arms procurement budget will be a test case for him to build his credibility with the US," Lo said.
"He will have to look at the issue more seriously and more responsibly because if he judges it wrongly, he will face a problematic relationship with the US if he one day becomes the president," Lo said.
Lo noted that it will be difficult for Ma to balance the KMT's pro-China policy with its relations with the US.
"The US is not so easy about a KMT that is so keen on reaching out to China even in the face of China's passage of the `Anti-Secession' Law," Lo said.
"The big question for Ma will be whether he thinks the US-Taiwan relations should come first or cross-strait relations," Lo said.
Responding to the international media's interpretation that the KMT's victory in Saturdy's elections will aid in its push for unification, Lo dismissed the idea, saying that if Ma promotes unification in the 2008 presidential election, "his campaign will be dead, immediately."
Even if Ma supports greater opening up in cross-strait policy, the relationship between China and Taiwan will be one of "integration" on social and economic levels rather than "unification," Lo said.
The Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) defeat in Saturday's elections also made President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) a lame duck, and the US would probably have lower expectations of him, Lo said.
However, Lo noted that Chen still has two and a half years left in his presidency, leaving him time to improve his low approval rating.
Vincent Chen (陳文賢), a researcher in the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University said that although Ma has been vocally supportive of an expanded cross-strait relationship, Ma wouldn't have to push for anything concrete until he became president.
"It will be best for Ma to stay put in terms of his cross-strait stance. By maintaining this atmosphere, Ma can avoid hitting up against national security matters but meanwhile save his position to become the main negotiator with China in the future," Chen said.
Lin Chen-yi (林正義), a research fellow at the Institute of European and American Studies of the Academia Sinica said the election results will enable the KMT to reposition its policy and focus more on securing the trust of the Taiwanese people.
Changing its position on the arms procurement budget would be a gesture to show it is being responsible, Lin said.
He added that he doubted Ma would be quick to follow the path his predecessor former KMT chairman Lien Chan (
"Ma is less likely to go to China than to visit the US," Lin said.
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