Elections in Miaoli County have always been heavily influenced by ethnicity, geography and powerful local clans. This time, although Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Liu Cheng-hung (劉政鴻) has an edge in the commissioner race given the pan-blue camp's 50-year dominance in the region, a number of uncertainties could affect the race.
Miaoli County's population of is mainly Hakka, making ethnicity a focus in the campaign. The KMT's candidate for commissioner, Liu, however, is ethnically Minnan.
The Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) candidate, Chiu Bing-kun (邱炳坤), who is a Hakka, hopes to use the ethnic card to advantage, and is trailing Liu by only a small margin in the polls.
Chiu also has the support of incumbent Commissioner Fu Hsueh-peng (傅學鵬), an independent.
Chiu was originally a KMT member and head of the party's Miaoli election headquarters, but lost the party's primary. After KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) openly pledged support for Liu, Chiu turned to the DPP Legislator for Miaoli County, Tu Wen-ching (杜文卿), and to Fu for support.
Just when it seemed as though Chiu might be able to win the election based on his Hakka ethnicity, independent Hakka candidate Hsu Yao-chang (徐耀昌) came into the picture. Hsu's presence could split the Hakka vote.
Hsu, a People First Party (PFP) legislator, decided to run as an independent after negotiations with the KMT to select one candidate to represent the pan-blues fell apart.
The KMT had wanted the PFP to support its candidate for Hsinchu County commissioner and the PFP asked the KMT to support Hsu in Miaoli in exchange. However, the KMT decided to back Liu.
Analysts say Chiu could gain both pan-blue and pan-green votes because of his connection with both parties, but may also end up with the support of neither, for the same reason.
Recent DPP polls indicate that Liu leads the race with around 23 percent support, followed by Chiu, with Hsu trailing behind Chiu.
The election's outcome could hinge on whether the people of Miaoli County decide to disregard party affiliation to vote for a Hakka candidate or lend their support to the KMT candidate to keep the region in pan-blue hands.
Geography adds another uncertainty. Miaoli County is divided into three regions: a mountainous area, a coastal area and the Chung-kang River (中港溪) region. The three candidates, Chiu, Liu and Hsu, happen to be from each of the three areas, respectively, ensuring to some extent, geographic voting.
Two powerful local clans, the Lius and Huangs, are also an influential factor in the race.
Traditionally the two groups have taken turns holding the county's top office. However, the Huang clan has been in power for the past 16 years, bringing Commissioner Fu into power with their support.
However, the Liu clan still possesses great influence, as was seen in the last legislative polls when Liu Cheng-hung was elected with a high level of support.
Which candidates the two clans back will also be a crucial factor in the outcome of the commissioner race.
Three independent candidates are also running: Chen Hsiu-lung (
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