Taiwan's presidential elections and Hong Kong's democratic stirrings are creating an unsettling problem for China, which is anxious to keep a lid on any moves toward independence, analysts said.
The nightmare scenario as seen from Beijing is for Hong Kong to eventually produce an equivalent to President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).
China also fears that democracy in its autonomous enclave Hong Kong will inspire similar aspirations in mainland cities, where economic reforms have created a powerful new elite and growing middle class.
"They really are concerned about the people in Hong Kong electing somebody that could move toward independence," said David Zweig, a political scientist at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
"I don't think it's going to happen. People seem to be realistic here. But that seems to be one of China's fears," he said.
Those fears were made obvious this week, when a Hong Kong task force visited Beijing to seek the government's views on possible universal suffrage in the autonomous enclave by 2007.
After three days of meetings, Beijing made it clear that democracy would have to wait.
Hong Kong's autonomy means "self-governing under the authorization of the central government," the official Xinhua news agency declared, implying the Chinese government would have the final say on political change.
Statements like this will not go unnoticed by Taiwan's voters, who are only too aware that the "one country, two systems" formula adopted when Hong Kong reverted to China in 1997 was originally coined in order to get Taiwan to accept unification.
Even so, Hong Kong's situation is unlikely to have much impact on Taiwan's neck-and-neck presidential race between pro-independence and pro-Beijing parties.
The public knows that China's watchword for Hong Kong is stability, according to Wu Nengyuan, head of Taiwan research at the Fujian Academy of Social Sciences.
"So basically this won't affect Taiwan's attitude toward reunification and the `one country, two systems' policy," he said.
Taiwan's public may also not equate their own situation with that of Hong Kong.
"`One country, two systems' has no appeal to the Taiwan people anyway," said Joseph Cheng (鄭宇碩), a China watcher at City University of Hong Kong. "If there is no reform in Hong Kong, people in Taiwan won't be surprised."
But even if Taiwan were not such a major problem for the Chinese government, Hong Kong would still be a top agenda item, according to observers.
From Beijing's perspective, a fully democratic Hong Kong could have dangerous implications for the mainland.
If Hong Kong can enjoy democracy, China's increasingly sophisticated urbanites might begin to ask questions about some of China's cities where living standards are rapidly approaching those of their wealthy southern neighbor.
The problem is made all the more complex for the Chinese leadership because of the intense international scrutiny of Hong Kong, severely limiting its scope of action.
China took control of Hong Kong from Britain in 1997, since when the territory's problems have steadily multiplied.
It is still uncertain whether the new leaders who took over the reins in China last year will be any better than their predecessors at handling these issues.
"We can only say they haven't shown the political will yet to push for political reform," Cheng said.
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is maintaining close ties with Beijing, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said yesterday, hours after a new round of Chinese military drills in the Taiwan Strait began. Political parties in a democracy have a responsibility to be loyal to the nation and defend its sovereignty, DPP spokesman Justin Wu (吳崢) told a news conference in Taipei. His comments came hours after Beijing announced via Chinese state media that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command was holding large-scale drills simulating a multi-pronged attack on Taiwan. Contrary to the KMT’s claims that it is staunchly anti-communist, KMT Deputy
RESPONSE: The government would investigate incidents of Taiwanese entertainers in China promoting CCP propaganda online in contravention of the law, the source said Taiwanese entertainers living in China who are found to have contravened cross-strait regulations or collaborated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could be subject to fines, a source said on Sunday. Several Taiwanese entertainers have posted on the social media platform Sina Weibo saying that Taiwan “must be returned” to China, and sharing news articles from Chinese state media. In response, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has asked the Ministry of Culture to investigate whether the entertainers had contravened any laws, and asked for them to be questioned upon their return to Taiwan, an official familiar with the matter said. To curb repeated
Myanmar has turned down an offer of assistance from Taiwanese search-and-rescue teams after a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck the nation on Friday last week, saying other international aid is sufficient, the National Fire Agency said yesterday. More than 1,700 have been killed and 3,400 injured in the quake that struck near the central Myanmar city of Mandalay early on Friday afternoon, followed minutes later by a magnitude 6.7 aftershock. Worldwide, 13 international search-and-rescue teams have been deployed, with another 13 teams mobilizing, the agency said. Taiwan’s search-and-rescue teams were on standby, but have since been told to stand down, as