Taiwan's presidential elections and Hong Kong's democratic stirrings are creating an unsettling problem for China, which is anxious to keep a lid on any moves toward independence, analysts said.
The nightmare scenario as seen from Beijing is for Hong Kong to eventually produce an equivalent to President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).
China also fears that democracy in its autonomous enclave Hong Kong will inspire similar aspirations in mainland cities, where economic reforms have created a powerful new elite and growing middle class.
"They really are concerned about the people in Hong Kong electing somebody that could move toward independence," said David Zweig, a political scientist at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
"I don't think it's going to happen. People seem to be realistic here. But that seems to be one of China's fears," he said.
Those fears were made obvious this week, when a Hong Kong task force visited Beijing to seek the government's views on possible universal suffrage in the autonomous enclave by 2007.
After three days of meetings, Beijing made it clear that democracy would have to wait.
Hong Kong's autonomy means "self-governing under the authorization of the central government," the official Xinhua news agency declared, implying the Chinese government would have the final say on political change.
Statements like this will not go unnoticed by Taiwan's voters, who are only too aware that the "one country, two systems" formula adopted when Hong Kong reverted to China in 1997 was originally coined in order to get Taiwan to accept unification.
Even so, Hong Kong's situation is unlikely to have much impact on Taiwan's neck-and-neck presidential race between pro-independence and pro-Beijing parties.
The public knows that China's watchword for Hong Kong is stability, according to Wu Nengyuan, head of Taiwan research at the Fujian Academy of Social Sciences.
"So basically this won't affect Taiwan's attitude toward reunification and the `one country, two systems' policy," he said.
Taiwan's public may also not equate their own situation with that of Hong Kong.
"`One country, two systems' has no appeal to the Taiwan people anyway," said Joseph Cheng (鄭宇碩), a China watcher at City University of Hong Kong. "If there is no reform in Hong Kong, people in Taiwan won't be surprised."
But even if Taiwan were not such a major problem for the Chinese government, Hong Kong would still be a top agenda item, according to observers.
From Beijing's perspective, a fully democratic Hong Kong could have dangerous implications for the mainland.
If Hong Kong can enjoy democracy, China's increasingly sophisticated urbanites might begin to ask questions about some of China's cities where living standards are rapidly approaching those of their wealthy southern neighbor.
The problem is made all the more complex for the Chinese leadership because of the intense international scrutiny of Hong Kong, severely limiting its scope of action.
China took control of Hong Kong from Britain in 1997, since when the territory's problems have steadily multiplied.
It is still uncertain whether the new leaders who took over the reins in China last year will be any better than their predecessors at handling these issues.
"We can only say they haven't shown the political will yet to push for political reform," Cheng said.
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
The High Prosecutors’ Office yesterday withdrew an appeal against the acquittal of a former bank manager 22 years after his death, marking Taiwan’s first instance of prosecutors rendering posthumous justice to a wrongfully convicted defendant. Chu Ching-en (諸慶恩) — formerly a manager at the Taipei branch of BNP Paribas — was in 1999 accused by Weng Mao-chung (翁茂鍾), then-president of Chia Her Industrial Co, of forging a request for a fixed deposit of US$10 million by I-Hwa Industrial Co, a subsidiary of Chia Her, which was used as collateral. Chu was ruled not guilty in the first trial, but was found guilty
A wild live dugong was found in Taiwan for the first time in 88 years, after it was accidentally caught by a fisher’s net on Tuesday in Yilan County’s Fenniaolin (粉鳥林). This is the first sighting of the species in Taiwan since 1937, having already been considered “extinct” in the country and considered as “vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. A fisher surnamed Chen (陳) went to Fenniaolin to collect the fish in his netting, but instead caught a 3m long, 500kg dugong. The fisher released the animal back into the wild, not realizing it was an endangered species at
DEADLOCK: As the commission is unable to forum a quorum to review license renewal applications, the channel operators are not at fault and can air past their license date The National Communications Commission (NCC) yesterday said that the Public Television Service (PTS) and 36 other television and radio broadcasters could continue airing, despite the commission’s inability to meet a quorum to review their license renewal applications. The licenses of PTS and the other channels are set to expire between this month and June. The National Communications Commission Organization Act (國家通訊傳播委員會組織法) stipulates that the commission must meet the mandated quorum of four to hold a valid meeting. The seven-member commission currently has only three commissioners. “We have informed the channel operators of the progress we have made in reviewing their license renewal applications, and