Tue, Jul 23, 2002 page3

• Taiwan wary of `domino effect'

  KEEPING THE FLOCK Several analysts warned that after Beijing managed to lure Nauru to its fold after offering financial assistance, many more countries may follow

  • By Monique Chu / STAFF REPORTER
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  Taiwan should remain vigilant against a possible "domino effect" likely to be triggered among Taipei's diplomatic allies after China lured Nauru's president to Beijing's fold with promises of US$137 million to the debt-stricken country, analysts warned yesterday.

  "Nauru's decision to establish diplomatic ties with China is not surprising at all in my opinion," said Wu Tung-yeh (吳東野), a political scientist at National Chengchi University.

  "What worries me is that the case might trigger a `domino effect' among Taiwan's existing allies," Wu cautioned.

  Panama and Haiti allegedly have faced lobbying pressure from Beijing recently to switch ties from Taipei to Beijing, sources said.

  Chou Shi-hsiung (周世雄), a political scientist at National Sun Yat-sen University, echoed Wu's view.

  "We should try to avoid a `domino effect' triggered by this incident," said Chou, who has just returned to Taipei after his ten-month stay in Washington as a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.

  Both analysts expressed their views in a panel discussion held yesterday at the foreign ministry.

  Chou urged the foreign ministry to enhance its risk-management with allied countries that are allegedly ready to switch diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

  Peter Cheng (鄭博久), director-general of the ministry's department of East Asian and Pacific affairs, said the government has already begun preventive measures in the Pacific region.

  Taiwan has recently secured visits to Taipei by high-ranking officials from the rest of the four countries in the South Pacific region that recognize Taipei since China began to offer lucrative incentives to Nauru to lure the tiny state to forge formal ties with Beijing, Cheng said.

  These four countries are the Solomon Islands, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu as well as the Fiji Islands.

  Although some have argued that Taiwan should endeavor to lure another country to turn its back on Beijing -- regardless of costs involved -- to retaliate against China's diplomatic coup in the case of Nauru, Wu opposed such a move.

  "Taiwan simply could not afford to do so as it did 10 years ago. And there is little chance that we'll outperform China if we intend to `buy' another country," Wu conceded.

  Worse yet, the increasing diplomatic tools China has possessed over the years would increase pressure on Taiwan to tackle Beijing's sabotage on the diplomatic front, analysts said.

  Aside from unchecked withdrawal of cash from the Chinese government's financial coffers to lure Taipei's allies to come into its fold, Beijing could also press Taipei's allies by emphasizing its position as one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, they said.

  "It would be wishful thinking if we want to urge Beijing to reach a truce with us on diplomatic fronts," Wu said.

  "China as an enormous power possesses various diplomatic tools we can't compete with ... Serving as Taiwan's diplomat is perhaps the hardest job in the world," conceded a foreign ministry official outside of the panel discussion.

  Analysts and lawmakers said Taipei should not lapse into "the myth" surrounding the number of diplomatic allies Taiwan needs to secure its international standing, adding that resources should be diverted somewhere else.

  "Instead of buying these tiny states, we should invest our resources in multilateral international organizations as well as ties with countries of significance," Wu said.

  "Taiwan's resources should not be wasted on small countries such as Nauru," said Chou, a view soon echoed by PFP lawmaker Sun Ta-chien (孫大千).

  DPP legislator Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) said Taiwan should continue expanding the country's external ties despite the setback in the case of Nauru, adding that there is still a lot of room, for instance, in expanding Taipei's non-governmental diplomacy.

  But retaining certain numbers of diplomatic allies, Wu said, means a lot to politicians.

  "If the number of Taiwan's diplomatic allies drops to 21 by 2004 when President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) seeks his re-election, he would stand a slim chance of success as the opposition parties would make the loss of allies an issue and attack him severely," Wu said.

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