Chang Po-ya (
The former minister of the interior has been considering the Kaohsiung mayoral race since failing to receive enough votes on June 21 to be confirmed as Examination Yuan vice president.
But while many PFP members would like to see Chang take on incumbent DPP Mayor Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), the party says it hasn't scrapped plans to jointly nominate a candidate with the KMT.
"None of the four `pan-blue' camp aspirants vying for the nomination have close enough connections to or will be able to garner sufficient support from regional factions," Chiu Hei-yuan (
If Chang decides to enter the race, she'll face Hsieh -- who is seeking a second term -- and former DPP chairman Shih Ming-te (施明德), who formally announced his independent candidacy on June 2.
Competing to represent the "pan-blue" camp are PFP Vice Chairman Chang Chao-hsiung (張昭雄) and four KMT members: former Kaohsiung vice mayor Huang Jun-ying (黃俊英), former National Police Administration director-general Yao Kao-chiao (姚高橋) and Kaohsiung City Council Speaker Huang Chi-chuan (黃啟川).
KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) in June agreed to cooperate in mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung; the PFP has already thrown its support behind Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the KMT, who is running for re-election.
But fed up with the delay in picking a candidate for Kaohsiung, some legislators from the KMT and PFP have vowed to support their favorite unless the two parties make a decision soon.
If the "pan blue" camp fails to field a joint candidate and switches its support to Chang Po-ya, she stands a good chance of winning against Hsieh and Shih, analysts said.
"First of all, Shih will have little impact on the campaign, and Hsieh's performance over the past three years as city mayor has been bad," Chiu said. "In addition, Hsieh's doubling up as the party chairman over the past two years also did him more harm than good."
What's more, Hsieh doesn't enjoy close ties with regional factions, while Chang comes from a family that is politically influential in Chiayi County.
"Many political leaders in Kaohsiung City moved there from elsewhere, including Chiayi County, and developed a long-term friendship with her and her family," Chiu said. "In addition, she has extensive political experience and a deep affinity for Kaohsiung City."
The 60-year-old Chang has also served as governor of the Taiwan Provincial Government, mayor of Chiayi City, director-general of the Department of Health and as a lawmaker.
She also spent seven years studying at a medical college and taught at a university for more than 19 years.
But despite the apparent advantages, Chiu warned that Chang still faces a number of difficulties.
"Among them is that she has to turn around the perception that her decision to join the Kaohsiung mayoral race is a vindictive one," Chiu said.
Many believe Chang is considering the run to retaliate against the "pan-green" camp for failing to adequately support her nomination for Examination Yuan vice president.
"She doesn't want to give the public the impression that she's joining the race because she's angry with the DPP for not ensuring enough votes for her confirmation," Chang said.
Emile Sheng (
"But it's hard to turn things around since it seems clear that she hadn't planned to join the race at all before the showdown took place in the legislature," he said.
If the "pan-blue" camp does fail to field a joint candidate, it would be to the DPP's advantage.
"The DPP thrives on a split `pan blue' camp," said Chin Heng-wei (金恆煒), a political observer and editor in chief of Contemporary magazine. "With four contestants in the `pan-blue' camp each having their own group of supporters, conflict will be inevitable and will hamper cooperation if the uncertainty continues."
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