Next week’s conclave to elect the successor to Pope Francis as leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics is a solemn affair steeped in centuries-old traditions, but far from the Sistine Chapel where cloistered cardinals are to cast votes, people are placing bets on who would be chosen as the next pope.
From cash bets on Web sites to online games modeled after fantasy football leagues and casual wagers among friends and families, the popularity of guessing and gambling on the future of the papacy is increasing worldwide, experts and participants say.
It has even topped the Europa League soccer tournament and Formula One drivers’ championship, said Sam Eaton, UK manager for Oddschecker, an online platform analyzing odds across sports, events and other betting markets.
Photo: REUTERS
“There’s a huge level of interest globally,” he said. “I don’t think we’ve had a market like this where we’ve had so many countries interested in seeing odds.”
Around the world, thousands of bets on the next pope
Hundreds of thousands of people from some 140 countries have visited Oddschecker to review each cardinal’s chances of becoming the next pope, Eaton said.
In the UK, about ￡30,000 (US$39,813) has been wagered with one leading online betting platform as of this week, Eaton said, with the conclave days away.
Betting on elections, papal conclaves and all manner of global events is almost a tradition of its own in the UK, but such betting is not legal in the US. BetMGM, one of the world’s top sports-betting companies, said it would not have any bets up.
In the unregulated, illegal space, one of the biggest sites has US$10 million wagered so far in pope bets, Eaton said.
In Italy, betting on the papal election — and all religious events — is forbidden.
Some people in Rome are making friendly, informal wagers — the equivalent of US$20 on a favorite cardinal, with the loser pledging to host a dinner or buy a pizza night out.
Others are turning to an online game called Fantapapa, or Fantasy Pope, which mimics popular fantasy football and soccer leagues. More than 60,000 people are playing, each choosing 11 cardinals — as if for a soccer team — whom they believe have the best shot at becoming the next pope.
They also draft the top contender, or captain. As with online wagers, the No. 1 choice for fantasy players has been Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, closely followed by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.
“It’s a really fun game to play with friends and have a laugh,” Italian student Federico La Rocca, 23, said. “Initially my dad sent it to me ironically, but now that it’s going to be the conclave, I decided to have a go and try it.”
La Rocca said he chose Tagle because “he looks like a nice guy and fun person.”
Players’ selections determine the number of points they rake in, but what is the jackpot?
“Eternal glory,” said Mauro.
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