Who says cricket matches are unpredictable? A business solutions company in Mumbai has devised a computer model that forecasts cricket scores with apparently astounding success.
The company, Fractal Analytics, scored a major hit by predicting West Indies' underdog victory over Pakistan in the opening game of the World Cup on Tuesday.
Amazingly, it even forecast the exact scores of rival captains Brian Lara of the West Indies and Inzamam-ul-Haq of Pakistan.
Tuesday morning's edition of the Mumbai-based Daily News and Analysis newspaper carried the predictions, based on what what the company said was scientific analysis of players' past performances.
The forecast said: "West Indies will win in a tight finish and will put up a low score if they bat first."
The prediction correctly said Lara would make 37 and Inzamam 36.
Fractal Analytics, which specializes in predictive analysis of customer behavior for clients such as Visa and Citibank, devised the model to forecast cricket results just for fun.
"We started this a few months back and found that the predictions actually came out true," Mukesh Budania, a consultant with the firm, told reporters.
"So we decided to be bold and give our predictions to a newspaper a day before the match. I can tell you the whole team in the office was jumping with joy last night when Lara got out for 37 and Inzamam for 36," he said.
The model is based on the theory that the outcome of every game and the performance of every player depends, to a degree, on what the player or the team has done in the past.
To predict which team will win a particular match, the statistics of all one-day internationals played since 1996 are looked at to identify factors that have the maximum impact on the outcome of the match.
The big question is who will win the World Cup -- but sadly Budania says it is too early for the computer to tell.
Its next prediction will be for the England-New Zealand match tomorrow, which will be published before the game in the Daily News and Analysis newspaper.
"So far we are doing it just for fun, but if the model works we may even think of marketing it in future," he said.
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