The UN’s most powerful body, the Security Council, met yesterday to hold another straw poll to gauge the popularity of a growing field of contenders to lead the embattled organization.
UN Conference on Trade and Development Secretary-General and former Costa Rican vice president Rebeca Grynspan was the front-runner after last month’s first informal vote, in which the council’s 15 members, including the five with veto power, pass judgement in secret on the candidates.
Argentine diplomat and International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi is also a candidate along with former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorian minister of foreign affairs Maria Fernanda Espinosa, former Guyanese minister of foreign affairs Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, former Ugandan minister of foreign affairs Olara Otunnu and former Senegalese president Macky Sall.
Photo: EPA
After the first round concluded, former Ecuadorian minister of industries and productivity Ivonne A-Baki threw her hat into the race to succeed Antonio Guterres, who would complete his second five-year term on Dec. 31.
“While the first straw poll set the scene for the Secretary-General race, the second may give us some direction about where it is headed,” UN International Crisis Group head Daniel Forti said. “Diplomats expect fluctuations in the vote distribution compared to the July poll. Most will be watching to see whether the early front-runners consolidate their support or slip in the standings.”
“It is unlikely that any candidate will emerge from [yesterday’s] poll with a decisive lead,” he said.
The veto-wielding nations — the UK, China, France, Russia and the US — might wait until later to express their preferences, while new contenders could emerge, he added.
Even if a candidate earns the required nine votes from the 15 available in the Security Council, they must also avoid a veto by the five major powers, which are deeply divided. Once a candidate clears those bars, their name would go to the General Assembly of all UN members for confirmation.
The Security Council straw poll was devised in the early 1980s in an attempt to break a deadlock between two candidates shut down by vetoes.
The informal mechanism has persisted, in various forms, despite criticism from countries opposed to the opaque process.
Each member state must anonymously assign each candidate one of three labels: “encourage,” “discourage” or “no opinion.” That would give those with no support the opportunity to withdraw — although they are not obliged.
In the first rounds of the process expected to take several weeks, all ballots are the same color.
However, after an unspecified number of votes, the ballots of the five permanent members would become a different color from those of the elected members, making it possible to identify potential vetoes, without knowing which country blackballed any given candidate.
It is tradition that the UN’s top job should rotate between different regions.
Under that premise, the role should go to a candidate from Latin America this time. There are many candidates from the region, although Sall and Otunnu hail from Africa.
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