China does not plan to invade Taiwan next year and seeks to control the nation without the use of force, the US intelligence community said on Wednesday.
The assessment in the intelligence agencies’ annual report on global threats comes as Beijing has stepped up pressure on Taiwan with frequent military drills, even as US President Donald Trump has downplayed the risk of Chinese military action while he is in office.
The Pentagon late last year said that the US military believed China was preparing to be able to win a fight for Taiwan by next year, the centenary of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and was refining options to take Taiwan by “brute force” if needed.
Photo: EPA
“China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to counter what it sees as a US attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible,” the US intelligence agencies said in the report.
The US “assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” the report said.
It reiterated previous views that the PLA was making “steady, but uneven” progress on capabilities it could use to capture Taiwan.
Beijing would almost certainly consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, the report said, listing factors such as “PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the US will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf,” the report said.
Chinese officials acknowledge that a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be extremely challenging and risky, particularly if the US intervenes, it said.
A conflict over Taiwan could disrupt US access to trade and critical semiconductors, unsettle global supply chains, and spark market turmoil, it said.
“Even without Washington’s involvement, US and global economic and security interests would face significant and costly consequences, with tech supply chains disrupted and investor fear across markets,” it said.
In addition, a protracted war with the US risks unprecedented economic costs to the US, Chinese and global economies, it added.
Beijing yesterday said that the US should “stop hyping” China as a threat.
“The US should ... speak and act cautiously on the Taiwan issue,” should “correct their understanding of China and stop hyping up the China threat theory,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Lin Jian (林劍) told a news conference.
In Taipei, a national security official yesterday said that while Beijing has pushed back its timetable for a potential attack on Taiwan, the threat remains far from over.
Political interference and “united front” efforts are expected to continue, with China adjusting its expansion goals and timeline in line with evolving strategic conditions and realities on the ground, said the official on condition of anonymity.
US intelligence assessments are ongoing and continuously updated, they said.
For this year, the view that China might be delaying its timeline for an invasion of Taiwan rests on two main factors, they said.
First, purges within the Chinese military over the past two years reflect deep-seated corruption and structural problems in command under an authoritarian system, they said, adding that the actions have also significantly undermined the PLA’s ability to integrate and develop joint combat capabilities.
As the purges continue, their effects on equipment modernization, internal discipline and overall morale have forced Chinese decisionmakers to prioritize internal stability above all else, the official said.
Second, in the past few months, several international conflicts have highlighted a stark gap between China’s vaunted military equipment and tactics, and the reality on the ground, they said.
The shortfall has come as a major shock to the Chinese military and its top decisionmakers, as it underscores the potential outcomes if the PLA were to face US forces or comparable equipment in a conflict, they said.
Meanwhile, the report said that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could bring about a Japanese military response departed from the rhetoric of previous Japanese leaders.
However, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara yesterday told a news conference that “the [Japanese] government’s position of judging an existential crisis situation with all the information it gathers is consistent with the past.”
“The assessment that there has been a major shift is not accurate,” Kihara added.
Additional reporting by AFP
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