If Taiwan could resist a Chinese invasion attempt for a few months, the attempt would be a “comprehensive disaster” for China, retired US admiral Dennis Blair, a former US Pacific Fleet commander, said following a civilian-organized tabletop exercise in Taipei last week.
China would assess whether Taiwan had the capability to resist for several months, knowing that if it could, an invasion would be a comprehensive disaster, Blair said in an interview, adding that it would be a “very foolish miscalculation” for China to think it could complete an invasion within a few days and present the world with a fait accompli.
Blair said that in his view, Taiwan and the US maintain a degree of deterrence, so it would be very risky for China to turn to military aggression.
Photo: Tu Chien-rong, Taipei Times
If China were to launch an unprovoked attack on Taiwan, it would pose a major challenge to the international order, so several countries, including the US, Japan, the Philippines and other nations in the Asia-Pacific region, would likely come to Taiwan’s aid in such a contingency, he said.
Taiwan should never assume that it would not receive support from the US or other countries, but it must still possess strong self-defense capabilities to buy time for others to make decisions and come to its aid, while it puts up fierce resistance, Blair said.
Asked how long Taiwan would need to hold out if China attacked, Blair said that more important than his own assessment is how China judges the situation.
If China believes Taiwan could resist for several months, it would likely take into consideration how disastrous an invasion attempt would be for it, he said.
History has seen too many nations mistakenly believe that war would be quick and easy, and that they would inevitably be victorious, only for overly optimistic judgements to result in severe national harm, Blair said.
Commenting on whether a prediction made by former US Indo-Pacific commander admiral Phillip Davidson in 2021 that China would invade Taiwan in 2027 was likely, Blair said he believes that while 2027 marks the centennial of the founding of the Chinese military, the call to be ready for an invasion by then was “more like a slogan.”
While the US and Taiwan must pay attention to the development of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Blair said he does not see 2027 as a “decisive moment.”
Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo also recently warned that China’s frequent military exercises near Taiwan were no longer mere drills, but rehearsals for an invasion, and said that China is “on a dangerous path.”
However, Blair cited the US Department of Defense’s China Military Power Report, which said that China is gradually expanding its military strength with the goal of becoming a world-class military power, and that 2027 is merely one stage in that process.
China is investing heavily in nuclear deterrence, space systems, aircraft carrier battle groups and long-range logistics support, and its modernization is comprehensive and not solely aimed at invading Taiwan, he said.
If there were a concrete date for an invasion, the PLA’s development patterns would look very different, he added.
He said there are three key lessons for Taiwan from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:
First, a large, powerful neighbor does not necessarily prevail over a smaller but determined country.
Second, Ukraine’s small units combined with extensive use of drones and aerial vehicles have been able to block Russian ground forces, and even Russian air and missile superiority.
Third, Ukraine’s sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to retreat eastward, which is an important lesson for Taiwan, as it could employ similar tactics to repel China’s amphibious ships.
If Taiwan continues to deploy autonomous uncrewed systems for near-shore and littoral operations alongside the US’ continued development of advanced weapons such as hypersonic missiles, the two countries could maintain a favorable overall military balance through 2027, he said.
A Chinese aircraft carrier group entered Japan’s economic waters over the weekend, before exiting to conduct drills involving fighter jets, the Japanese Ministry of Defense said yesterday. The Liaoning aircraft carrier, two missile destroyers and one fast combat supply ship sailed about 300km southwest of Japan’s easternmost island of Minamitori on Saturday, a ministry statement said. It was the first time a Chinese aircraft carrier had entered that part of Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), a ministry spokesman said. “We think the Chinese military is trying to improve its operational capability and ability to conduct operations in distant areas,” the spokesman said. China’s growing
BUILDUP: US General Dan Caine said Chinese military maneuvers are not routine exercises, but instead are ‘rehearsals for a forced unification’ with Taiwan China poses an increasingly aggressive threat to the US and deterring Beijing is the Pentagon’s top regional priority amid its rapid military buildup and invasion drills near Taiwan, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday. “Our pacing threat is communist China,” Hegseth told the US House of Representatives Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense during an oversight hearing with US General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “Beijing is preparing for war in the Indo-Pacific as part of its broader strategy to dominate that region and then the world,” Hegseth said, adding that if it succeeds, it could derail
COMPLIANCE: The SEF has helped more than 3,900 Chinese verify documents, indicating that most of those affected are willing to cooperate, the MAC said More than 3,100 spouses from China have submitted proof of renunciation of their Chinese household registration, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said yesterday. The National Immigration Agency has since April issued notices to spouses to submit proof that they had renounced their Chinese household registration on or before June 30 or their Taiwanese household registration would be revoked. People having difficulties obtaining such a document can request an extension of the deadline or submit a written affidavit in lieu of it. The council said it would hold a briefing at 2:30pm on Friday at the immigration agency’s Taichung office in cooperation with the
The government-funded human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is to be expanded to boys at junior-high school starting in September, the Health Promotion Administration (HPA) said yesterday. The Taiwan Society of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, the Taiwan Association of Obstetrics and Gynecology, the Taiwan Immunization Vision and Strategy, the Infectious Diseases Society of Taiwan, the Taiwan Head and Neck Society, the Formosa Cancer Foundation and the National Alliance of Presidents of Parents Associations held a joint news conference in Taipei yesterday to raise public awareness about the risks of HPV infection, regardless of gender. Invited to give an address, HPA Director-General Wu Chao-chun
RSS