If Taiwan could resist a Chinese invasion attempt for a few months, the attempt would be a “comprehensive disaster” for China, retired US admiral Dennis Blair, a former US Pacific Fleet commander, said following a civilian-organized tabletop exercise in Taipei last week.
China would assess whether Taiwan had the capability to resist for several months, knowing that if it could, an invasion would be a comprehensive disaster, Blair said in an interview, adding that it would be a “very foolish miscalculation” for China to think it could complete an invasion within a few days and present the world with a fait accompli.
Blair said that in his view, Taiwan and the US maintain a degree of deterrence, so it would be very risky for China to turn to military aggression.
Photo: Tu Chien-rong, Taipei Times
If China were to launch an unprovoked attack on Taiwan, it would pose a major challenge to the international order, so several countries, including the US, Japan, the Philippines and other nations in the Asia-Pacific region, would likely come to Taiwan’s aid in such a contingency, he said.
Taiwan should never assume that it would not receive support from the US or other countries, but it must still possess strong self-defense capabilities to buy time for others to make decisions and come to its aid, while it puts up fierce resistance, Blair said.
Asked how long Taiwan would need to hold out if China attacked, Blair said that more important than his own assessment is how China judges the situation.
If China believes Taiwan could resist for several months, it would likely take into consideration how disastrous an invasion attempt would be for it, he said.
History has seen too many nations mistakenly believe that war would be quick and easy, and that they would inevitably be victorious, only for overly optimistic judgements to result in severe national harm, Blair said.
Commenting on whether a prediction made by former US Indo-Pacific commander admiral Phillip Davidson in 2021 that China would invade Taiwan in 2027 was likely, Blair said he believes that while 2027 marks the centennial of the founding of the Chinese military, the call to be ready for an invasion by then was “more like a slogan.”
While the US and Taiwan must pay attention to the development of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Blair said he does not see 2027 as a “decisive moment.”
Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo also recently warned that China’s frequent military exercises near Taiwan were no longer mere drills, but rehearsals for an invasion, and said that China is “on a dangerous path.”
However, Blair cited the US Department of Defense’s China Military Power Report, which said that China is gradually expanding its military strength with the goal of becoming a world-class military power, and that 2027 is merely one stage in that process.
China is investing heavily in nuclear deterrence, space systems, aircraft carrier battle groups and long-range logistics support, and its modernization is comprehensive and not solely aimed at invading Taiwan, he said.
If there were a concrete date for an invasion, the PLA’s development patterns would look very different, he added.
He said there are three key lessons for Taiwan from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:
First, a large, powerful neighbor does not necessarily prevail over a smaller but determined country.
Second, Ukraine’s small units combined with extensive use of drones and aerial vehicles have been able to block Russian ground forces, and even Russian air and missile superiority.
Third, Ukraine’s sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to retreat eastward, which is an important lesson for Taiwan, as it could employ similar tactics to repel China’s amphibious ships.
If Taiwan continues to deploy autonomous uncrewed systems for near-shore and littoral operations alongside the US’ continued development of advanced weapons such as hypersonic missiles, the two countries could maintain a favorable overall military balance through 2027, he said.
SILENCING CRITICS: In addition to blocking Taiwan, China aimed to prevent rights activists from speaking out against authoritarian states, a Cabinet department said The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) yesterday condemned transnational repression by Beijing after RightsCon, a major digital human rights conference scheduled to be held in Zambia this week, was abruptly canceled due to Chinese pressure over Taiwanese participation. This year’s RightsCon, the world’s largest conference discussing issues “at the intersection of human rights and technology,” was scheduled to take place from tomorrow to Friday in Lusaka, and expected to draw 2,600 in-person attendees from 150 countries, along with 1,100 online participants. However, organizers were forced to cancel the event due to behind-the-scenes pressure from China, the ministry said, expressing its “strongest condemnation”
Taiwan’s economy grew far faster than expected in the first quarter, as booming demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications drove a surge in exports, spilling over into investment and consumption, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said yesterday. GDP growth was 13.69 percent year-on-year during the January-to-March period, beating the DGBAS’ February forecast by 2.23 percentage points and marking the most robust growth in nearly four decades, DGBAS senior official Chiang Hsin-yi (江心怡) told a news conference in Taipei. The result was powered by exports, which remain the backbone of Taiwan’s economy, Chiang said. Outbound shipments jumped 51.12 percent year-on-year to
DELAYED BUT DETERMINED: The president’s visit highlights Taiwan’s right to international engagement amid regional pressure from China President Willaim Lai (賴清德) yesterday arrived in Eswatini, more than a week after his planned visit to Taiwan’s sole African ally was suspended because of revoked overflight permits. “The visit, originally scheduled for April 22, was postponed due to unforeseen external factors,” Lai wrote on social media. “After several days of careful arrangements by our diplomatic and national security teams, we successfully arrived today.” Lai said he looked forward to further deepening Taiwan-Eswatini relations through closer cooperation in the economy, agriculture, culture and education, as well as advancing the nation’s international partnerships. The president was initially scheduled to arrive in time to celebrate
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) yesterday said the US faced a choice between an “impossible” military operation or a “bad deal” with Tehran, after US President Donald Trump disparaged Iran’s latest peace proposal. Negotiations between the two countries have been deadlocked since a ceasefire came into effect on April 8, with only one round of direct peace talks held so far. Iran’s Tasnim and Fars news agencies reported that Tehran had submitted a 14-point proposal to mediator Pakistan, but Trump was quick to cast doubt on it. “I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but
RSS