If Taiwan could resist a Chinese invasion attempt for a few months, the attempt would be a “comprehensive disaster” for China, retired US admiral Dennis Blair, a former US Pacific Fleet commander, said following a civilian-organized tabletop exercise in Taipei last week.
China would assess whether Taiwan had the capability to resist for several months, knowing that if it could, an invasion would be a comprehensive disaster, Blair said in an interview, adding that it would be a “very foolish miscalculation” for China to think it could complete an invasion within a few days and present the world with a fait accompli.
Blair said that in his view, Taiwan and the US maintain a degree of deterrence, so it would be very risky for China to turn to military aggression.
Photo: Tu Chien-rong, Taipei Times
If China were to launch an unprovoked attack on Taiwan, it would pose a major challenge to the international order, so several countries, including the US, Japan, the Philippines and other nations in the Asia-Pacific region, would likely come to Taiwan’s aid in such a contingency, he said.
Taiwan should never assume that it would not receive support from the US or other countries, but it must still possess strong self-defense capabilities to buy time for others to make decisions and come to its aid, while it puts up fierce resistance, Blair said.
Asked how long Taiwan would need to hold out if China attacked, Blair said that more important than his own assessment is how China judges the situation.
If China believes Taiwan could resist for several months, it would likely take into consideration how disastrous an invasion attempt would be for it, he said.
History has seen too many nations mistakenly believe that war would be quick and easy, and that they would inevitably be victorious, only for overly optimistic judgements to result in severe national harm, Blair said.
Commenting on whether a prediction made by former US Indo-Pacific commander admiral Phillip Davidson in 2021 that China would invade Taiwan in 2027 was likely, Blair said he believes that while 2027 marks the centennial of the founding of the Chinese military, the call to be ready for an invasion by then was “more like a slogan.”
While the US and Taiwan must pay attention to the development of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Blair said he does not see 2027 as a “decisive moment.”
Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo also recently warned that China’s frequent military exercises near Taiwan were no longer mere drills, but rehearsals for an invasion, and said that China is “on a dangerous path.”
However, Blair cited the US Department of Defense’s China Military Power Report, which said that China is gradually expanding its military strength with the goal of becoming a world-class military power, and that 2027 is merely one stage in that process.
China is investing heavily in nuclear deterrence, space systems, aircraft carrier battle groups and long-range logistics support, and its modernization is comprehensive and not solely aimed at invading Taiwan, he said.
If there were a concrete date for an invasion, the PLA’s development patterns would look very different, he added.
He said there are three key lessons for Taiwan from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:
First, a large, powerful neighbor does not necessarily prevail over a smaller but determined country.
Second, Ukraine’s small units combined with extensive use of drones and aerial vehicles have been able to block Russian ground forces, and even Russian air and missile superiority.
Third, Ukraine’s sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to retreat eastward, which is an important lesson for Taiwan, as it could employ similar tactics to repel China’s amphibious ships.
If Taiwan continues to deploy autonomous uncrewed systems for near-shore and littoral operations alongside the US’ continued development of advanced weapons such as hypersonic missiles, the two countries could maintain a favorable overall military balance through 2027, he said.
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