The increase in Taiwan’s military capabilities and willingness to defend itself makes it “much more likely” that the US would come to its aid in the event of a Chinese attack, retired US admiral Dennis Blair said yesterday.
Blair, who is in Taipei to participate in a civilian-organized tabletop exercise, was responding to a reporter asking team leaders of the exercise to gauge US willingness to help defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Two factors would influence a US president’s decision on whether to help defend Taiwan in such a scenario: how the conflict starts and whether Taiwan has the ability and willingness to defend itself, said Blair, a former US Pacific fleet commander.
Photo: Tu Chien-rong, Taipei Times
The second factor would “have a great deal of effect” on whether the US would become involved, he said.
“I’ve been coming to Taiwan for the most recent 20 years, participating in Taiwanese exercises, observing Taiwan, and I certainly see that the ability of Taiwan to defend itself, to defend against Chinese aggression, the willingness to do so has been increasing,” he said. “And that would mean that the United States would be much more likely to come to the assistance of Taiwan under this matter of great concern.”
He referenced pledges by former US president Joe Biden and a remark by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that the US would use military force to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion as indications of the US’ commitment to Taiwan’s defense.
Blair, a former US national intelligence director, also referenced the Taiwan Relations Act, which, in addition to stating that the US would ensure Taiwan has sufficient defense capabilities, states that the US considers any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by non-peaceful means a matter of “grave concern.”
“This means it may involve military force,” he said.
However, if the conflict was triggered by Taiwanese provocations, such as moves toward independence, the US would be less likely to become involved, he added.
For the Taiwanese and US governments, the objective is to deter, prevent and discourage any kind of Chinese aggression by having enough capability, and by making it clear that “we would fight if it comes to that,” he said.
From 2003 to 2007, Blair participated in the Han Kuang military exercises as a senior observer, during which he made suggestions to Taiwan that completed the infrastructure of the critical drills, including the adoption of the Joint Theater Level Simulation computerized war-gaming system and the Joint Training System, former chief of the general staff Lee Hsi-min (李喜明) said.
Lee heads the Taipei-based think tank Center for Peace and Security, one of the organizers of the war games.
MAKING WAVES: China’s maritime militia could become a nontraditional threat in war, clogging up shipping lanes to prevent US or Japanese intervention, a report said About 1,900 Chinese ships flying flags of convenience and fishing vessels that participated in China’s military exercises around Taiwan last month and in January have been listed for monitoring, Coast Guard Administration (CGA) Deputy Director-General Hsieh Ching-chin (謝慶欽) said yesterday. Following amendments to the Commercial Port Act (商港法) and the Law of Ships (船舶法) last month, the CGA can designate possible berthing areas or deny ports of call for vessels suspected of loitering around areas where undersea cables can be accessed, Oceans Affairs Council Minister Kuan Bi-ling (管碧玲) said. The list of suspected ships, originally 300, had risen to about 1,900 as
Japan’s strategic alliance with the US would collapse if Tokyo were to turn away from a conflict in Taiwan, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said yesterday, but distanced herself from previous comments that suggested a possible military response in such an event. Takaichi expressed her latest views on a nationally broadcast TV program late on Monday, where an opposition party leader criticized her for igniting tensions with China with the earlier remarks. Ties between Japan and China have sunk to the worst level in years after Takaichi said in November that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could bring about a Japanese
MORE RESPONSIBILITY: Draftees would be expected to fight alongside professional soldiers, likely requiring the transformation of some training brigades into combat units The armed forces are to start incorporating new conscripts into combined arms brigades this year to enhance combat readiness, the Executive Yuan’s latest policy report said. The new policy would affect Taiwanese men entering the military for their compulsory service, which was extended to one year under reforms by then-president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in 2022. The conscripts would be trained to operate machine guns, uncrewed aerial vehicles, anti-tank guided missile launchers and Stinger air defense systems, the report said, adding that the basic training would be lengthened to eight weeks. After basic training, conscripts would be sorted into infantry battalions that would take
DEEP-STRIKE CAPABILITY: The scenario simulated a PLA drill that turned into an assault on Taiwan’s critical infrastructure, with the launchers providing fire support Taiwan yesterday conducted this year’s first military exercises at Longsiang Base in Taichung, demonstrating the newly acquired High Mobility Artillery Rocket System’s (HIMARS) ability to provide fire support and deep-strike capabilities. The scenario simulated an attack on Penghu County, with HIMARS trucks immediately rolling into designated launch areas and firing barrages at the Wangan (望安) and Cimei (七美) islands, simulating the provision of fire support against invading forces. The HIMARS are supposed to “fire and leave,” which would significantly increase personnel and equipment survivability, a military official said. The drill simulated an exercise launched by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern
RSS