The increase in Taiwan’s military capabilities and willingness to defend itself makes it “much more likely” that the US would come to its aid in the event of a Chinese attack, retired US admiral Dennis Blair said yesterday.
Blair, who is in Taipei to participate in a civilian-organized tabletop exercise, was responding to a reporter asking team leaders of the exercise to gauge US willingness to help defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Two factors would influence a US president’s decision on whether to help defend Taiwan in such a scenario: how the conflict starts and whether Taiwan has the ability and willingness to defend itself, said Blair, a former US Pacific fleet commander.
Photo: Tu Chien-rong, Taipei Times
The second factor would “have a great deal of effect” on whether the US would become involved, he said.
“I’ve been coming to Taiwan for the most recent 20 years, participating in Taiwanese exercises, observing Taiwan, and I certainly see that the ability of Taiwan to defend itself, to defend against Chinese aggression, the willingness to do so has been increasing,” he said. “And that would mean that the United States would be much more likely to come to the assistance of Taiwan under this matter of great concern.”
He referenced pledges by former US president Joe Biden and a remark by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that the US would use military force to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion as indications of the US’ commitment to Taiwan’s defense.
Blair, a former US national intelligence director, also referenced the Taiwan Relations Act, which, in addition to stating that the US would ensure Taiwan has sufficient defense capabilities, states that the US considers any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by non-peaceful means a matter of “grave concern.”
“This means it may involve military force,” he said.
However, if the conflict was triggered by Taiwanese provocations, such as moves toward independence, the US would be less likely to become involved, he added.
For the Taiwanese and US governments, the objective is to deter, prevent and discourage any kind of Chinese aggression by having enough capability, and by making it clear that “we would fight if it comes to that,” he said.
From 2003 to 2007, Blair participated in the Han Kuang military exercises as a senior observer, during which he made suggestions to Taiwan that completed the infrastructure of the critical drills, including the adoption of the Joint Theater Level Simulation computerized war-gaming system and the Joint Training System, former chief of the general staff Lee Hsi-min (李喜明) said.
Lee heads the Taipei-based think tank Center for Peace and Security, one of the organizers of the war games.
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