Most Taiwanese are willing to defend the nation against a Chinese attack, but the majority believe Beijing is unlikely to invade within the next five years, a poll showed yesterday.
The poll carried out last month was commissioned by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a Taipei-based think tank, and released ahead of Double Ten National Day today, when President William Lai (賴清德) is to deliver a speech.
China maintains a near-daily military presence around Taiwan and has held three rounds of war games in the past two years.
Photo: Tu Chien-jung, Taipei Times
CIA Director William Burns last year said that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had ordered his military to be ready to carry out a successful invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
In the event of a Chinese attack, 67.8 percent of the 1,214 people surveyed said they would be “very willing or somewhat willing” to fight in defense of Taiwan, while 23.6 percent said they would not be.
Nearly 64 percent of respondents called China’s “territorial ambition” a “serious threat.”
However, 61 percent believed China was unlikely to launch an attack in the next five years, the survey showed.
Institute for National Defense and Security Research chief executive officer Lee Wen-chung (李文忠) said that the 2027 timeline for a potential Chinese invasion was based on when Xi might seek a fourth term.
“In order to successfully obtain the governing power for the fourth time in 2027, he may adopt relatively tough measures,” Lee said.
More than 52 percent of respondents believed the US, Taiwan’s key ally and biggest arms provider, would send troops to help defend it against a Chinese invasion, the survey showed.
However, only about 40 percent thought Washington would deploy its navy “to break” a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, it showed.
The public’s lack of faith in the US directly intervening in a war between Taiwan and China could be attributed to Washington’s long-standing strategic ambiguity policy, Lee said.
Although US President Joe Biden has said on five occasions that the US would defend or conditionally defend Taiwan in the event of an attack, the US Department of State issued statements dialing down Biden’s comments almost every time, he said.
US Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, said in a recent interview that Washington “should not seek conflict” with China and declined to say whether the US would use military force to support Taiwan if China were to attack.
Institute for National Defense and Security Research assistant research fellow Lee Kuan-cheng (李冠成) said this showed that Taiwan should continue pushing for national defense reforms, including boosting the combat capabilities of the armed forces.
It should also continue to provide whole-of-society national defense education, engage the public in affairs relating to national defense, and increase transparency on what the military does, which could include releasing more details on military drills, he said.
The survey was conducted by National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center from Sept. 11 to 16 via landlines and mobile phones.
It garnered 1,214 valid samples among people aged 18 or older, and had a confidence value of 95 percent and a margin of error of 2.81 percent.
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