A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could halt production by the world’s largest advanced chipmaker, wiping out up to US$1 trillion per year from the global economy in the first few years, the top US intelligence official told a hearing on Capitol Hill on Thursday.
US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines presented what she called a “general estimate” during testimony before the US Senate Armed Services Committee.
The advanced semiconductors produced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) are used in 90 percent of “almost every category of electronic device around the world,” she said.
Photo: AFP
If a Chinese invasion stopped TSMC from producing those chips, “it will have an enormous global financial impact that I think runs somewhere between US$600 billion to US$1 trillion on an annual basis for the first few years,” she said.
“It will also have an impact on [US] GDP if there was such an invasion of Taiwan and that [TSMC’s production] was blocked,” Haines said.
It would also have a large impact on China’s economy, she added.
To deal with that risk, TSMC is investing US$40 million to build two sophisticated wafer fabs in Arizona at Washington’s urging.
A fab using the 4-nanometer process is scheduled to begin mass production next year, and the other, using the more advanced 3-nanometer process, is slated to mass-produce chips starting in 2026.
Also at the hearing, Haines said that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is leaning toward unifying with Taiwan in a “peaceful” manner, but is also preparing possible military action to achieve that goal.
“I think we continue to assess that he [Xi] would prefer to achieve unification of Taiwan through peaceful means,” she said, citing US intelligence.
Regardless, Xi has directed the Chinese military to “provide him with a military option, essentially, to be able to take it without concern of [US] intervention,” which is expected to “have a meaningful impact on his capacity to do so,” Haines said.
Haines’ comments came after US Senator Rick Scott raised concerns about the possibility of China invading Taiwan, citing Xi’s remarks in the past year suggesting that he was preparing the Chinese population for a war against Taiwan.
Also at the hearing, US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Scott Berrier appeared to have greater concern than Haines about a possible invasion of Taiwan, saying that Xi’s rhetoric has been “picking up” after he assumed his third term as president.
Berrier provided a list of possible invasion dates ranging from 2025 to 2049.
“I think the bottom line is he’s told his military to be ready,” Berrier said.
Meanwhile, Haines said the relationship between the US and China has become “more challenging,” citing a speech made by Xi in March in which he blamed Washington for suppressing Beijing, reflecting his distrust of the US and his belief that Washington is seeking to contain his country.
In his March 6 speech, Xi accused the US of trying to isolate his country and hold back its development, and a US-led campaign of “containment and suppression” of China has “brought unprecedented, severe challenges.”
Despite Xi’s strong rhetoric, Haines said her agency’s intelligence suggests that China wants to preserve stability in a bid to avoid triggering additional technology restrictions or sanctions from the US.
LOYALTY: The 10 active and retired soldiers betrayed the nation and its people by leaking and passing on military secrets to China, the High Prosecutors’ Office said Ten former and current military officers were yesterday indicted on charges of spying for China, including two who allegedly filmed themselves pledging loyalty to Beijing. The High Prosecutors’ Office requested life imprisonment for the suspects in light of the severity of the crime. The 10 active-duty and retired officers included members of the 601st Brigade of the Aviation Special Forces comprising attack helicopter squadrons and elite combat units in charge of defending northern Taiwan, including Taipei. The other suspects came from Huadong Defense Command, in charge of defending the eastern coast; Kinmen Defense Command, in charge of defending Kinmen and Matsu; and one
NO FREE LUNCH: Taiwanese joining the trips to China met TAO and United Front Work officials who urged them to vote for candidates who support closer ties with Beijing The Ciaotou Prosecutors’ Office in Kaohsiung yesterday released two suspects on bail who have been accused of recruiting Taiwanese to join tours to China funded by Beijing and in which they were urged to vote for pan-blue candidates in January’s presidential and legislative elections. The pan-blue camp generally refers to the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), the People First Party, the New Party and the Young China Party, which support closer relations with China. Prosecutors said that a man, surnamed Cheng (鄭), and a woman, surnamed Yeh (葉), who are members of the China Pan-Blue Association, recruited Taiwanese tourists to join tours arranged
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) caucus yesterday slammed a proposal by New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) presidential candidate, to permit a “significant number” of Chinese students to study and work in Taiwan, saying it would be detrimental to young Taiwanese. At an event on Monday hosted by nine major industrial and business groups, Hou said that if elected, he would reinitiate cross-strait dialogue on the premise that Taiwan’s dignity would not be compromised and that the talks would be held in good faith. The talks would include lifting a ban on Chinese tour groups and
PEACE AND STABILITY: ‘Taiwan can be of tremendous value’ in building resilient supply chains, President Tsai Ing-wen said, as she encouraged closer ties with foreign businesses A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely for the time being due to the internal challenges and international pressure that China is facing, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) told the New York Times in an interview shown on Wednesday. “My thought is that perhaps this is not a time for them [China] to consider a major invasion of Taiwan,” Tsai said in a prerecorded interview for the DealBook Summit held by the newspaper on Wednesday. Beijing’s leadership is presently “overwhelmed by its internal challenges” on economic, financial and political grounds, while the international community “has made it loud and clear that war is
RSS