A recent survey commissioned by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) showed that 55 percent of Taiwanese thought the US would send forces to defend the nation against an invasion, while 37 percent believed no aid would come.
The serial poll conducted through March by the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University suggested that US skepticism in Taiwan has waned after peaking last year, analyst Liu Shu-ting (劉姝廷) wrote in a blog post on the INDSR’s Web site on Wednesday.
About 60 percent of respondents disagreed with the statement that accepting US military aid would lead to war for Taiwan, while 39 percent of respondents expressed agreement, Liu said, citing the poll.
Photo courtesy of the Philippine Army via CNA
Meanwhile, about 29 percent of Taiwanese believe that China is expected to be the most serious national security threat to Taiwan over the next five years, and almost no respondents believed that incitement to war by the US is a threat, the poll said.
The earliest INDSR poll in the series conducted in September 2021 showed that 57 percent of Taiwanese believed the US would militarily defend Taiwan, while 34 percent believed it would not, she said.
An INDSR’s polling in March last year showed that 40 percent of respondents said the US would use military force to defend Taiwan, while 49 percent said Washington would not, she said.
In August of that year, another INDSR poll revealed that 49 percent of Tawainese believe the US would militarily defend Taiwan, while 40 percent of them did not, Liu said.
These trends show that Taiwanese public confidence in direct support from the US in the event of war has reverted to levels from two years ago, she said.
Taiwanese confidence in the US likely fell due to the latter’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, but was restored by Washington’s continued aid to Ukraine following the Russian invasion last year, Liu said.
Increasing media literacy and awareness of disinformation in Taiwan likely contributed to the declining skepticism toward the US, which is a component of Beijing’s cognitive warfare campaign to split the US-led alliance of democracies on a global scale, she said.
Beijing’s endorsement of French President Emmanuel Macron’s message of Europe’s strategic autonomy is an example of the Chinese effort to divide the US and its allies, Liu added.
More than 30 percent of respondents persistently voiced doubts about the US commitment to defend Taiwan across the four polls, suggesting a strong disagreement about the US and its values among Taiwanese, she said.
Policymakers are urged to focus communication on the nation’s values, ideals and narratives instead of a transformation of public perceptions about the US, Liu said, adding that US skepticism is best countered by challenging its meaning and implications.
Promoting the view that Taiwan must have the strength to defend itself before seeking aid from allies, via a parallel with Ukraine, would also effectively counter Beijing’s efforts to discredit the US, she said.
The poll — which was conducted via landlines and mobile phones — gathered 1,535 valid samples among adults residing in Taiwan proper. The survey has a 95 percent confidence level and a margin of error of 2.5 percent.
NO-LIMITS PARTNERSHIP: ‘The bottom line’ is that if the US were to have a conflict with China or Russia it would likely open up a second front with the other, a US senator said Beijing and Moscow could cooperate in a conflict over Taiwan, the top US intelligence chief told the US Senate this week. “We see China and Russia, for the first time, exercising together in relation to Taiwan and recognizing that this is a place where China definitely wants Russia to be working with them, and we see no reason why they wouldn’t,” US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told a US Senate Committee on Armed Services hearing on Thursday. US Senator Mike Rounds asked Haines about such a potential scenario. He also asked US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lieutenant General Jeffrey Kruse
China’s intrusive and territorial claims in the Indo-Pacific region are “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive,” new US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo said on Friday, adding that he would continue working with allies and partners to keep the area free and open. Paparo made the remarks at a change-of-command ceremony at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam in Hawaii, where he took over the command from Admiral John Aquilino. “Our world faces a complex problem set in the troubling actions of the People’s Republic of China [PRC] and its rapid buildup of forces. We must be ready to answer the PRC’s increasingly intrusive and
INSPIRING: Taiwan has been a model in the Asia-Pacific region with its democratic transition, free and fair elections and open society, the vice president-elect said Taiwan can play a leadership role in the Asia-Pacific region, vice president-elect Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) told a forum in Taipei yesterday, highlighting the nation’s resilience in the face of geopolitical challenges. “Not only can Taiwan help, but Taiwan can lead ... not only can Taiwan play a leadership role, but Taiwan’s leadership is important to the world,” Hsiao told the annual forum hosted by the Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation think tank. Hsiao thanked Taiwan’s international friends for their long-term support, citing the example of US President Joe Biden last month signing into law a bill to provide aid to Taiwan,
UNWAVERING: Paraguay remains steadfast in its support of Taiwan, but is facing growing pressure at home and abroad to switch recognition to Beijing, Pena said Paraguayan President Santiago Pena has pledged to continue enhancing cooperation with Taiwan, as he and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed opposition to any unilateral change to the “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait using force, Japanese media reported on Saturday. Kishida yesterday completed a trip to France, Brazil and Paraguay, his first visit to South America since taking office in 2021. After the Japanese leader and Pena spoke for more than an hour on Friday, exchanging views on the situation in East Asia in the face of China’s increasing military pressure on Taiwan, they affirmed that “unilateral attempts to change the