China is unlikely to attain the military capability to engage in an all-out conflict with Taiwan within the decade, but it might initiate “gray zone” conflicts to force negotiations, an expert said yesterday.
Chi Yue-yi (亓樂義), an expert on China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), made the comment at a conference in Taipei held by the National Policy Foundation, a think tank affiliated with the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).
While the capability to mount a full-scale invasion would elude China for 10 years at the least, there is an extremely high risk that Beijing would utilize limited warfare to gain political leverage, Chi said.
Photo: Aaron Tu, Taipei Times
The threat of limited conflict includes pressure-point warfare, perceptual warfare, intimidation and punitive expedition, he said.
The specific form this conflict would take would be determined by China’s progress in reforming the PLA, the internal and external environment, and the global geostrategic situation, he said.
In a document titled The Indo-Pacific Strategy, the US stated its commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait by working with partners inside and outside the region, Chi said.
This shows that the Taiwan issue has become an international concern and that a coalition of maritime powers against China is emerging under Washington’s aegis, he said.
Foiling the rise of such a coalition is likely to take precedence over Bejing’s other strategic goals, including its quest to unify with Taiwan, Chi wrote in a document that he presented at the conference.
Former KMT legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方), the convener of the foundation’s national security division, said Taiwanese and Chinese customs officials estimate that bilateral trade is worth US$273 billion and US$328.3 billion respectively.
The high degree of economic integration and political hostility between the two sides is a combination that has no precedent, Lin said, adding that the “status quo” is probably unsustainable.
President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) trade policy regarding agricultural imports from the US and Japan is motivated not by economic concerns, but a desire to placate potential allies amid worsening relations with China, he said.
Tan Chih-lung (淡志隆), former head of Taiwan’s military delegation to the US, said that the PLA’s ability to cross the Strait is limited by a lack of air and sea transports.
Despite the PLA’s efforts to develop parachute and airmobile capabilities, no more than 30,000 troops could be transported, even were it to mobilize every ship and aircraft at its disposal, Tan said.
Taiwan’s coast is mostly unsuitable for amphibious landings due to erosion and urban development on beaches, he said.
Tzeng Yi-suo (曾怡碩), an assistant researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research’s Division of Cybersecurity and Decisionmaking Simulation, said that Beijing is exploiting the normal competition between political parties to divide Taiwan.
Hijacking the political messaging of Taiwan’s opposition parties is a simple but effective tactic, he said.
CARROT AND STICK: While unrelenting in its military threats, China attracted nearly 40,000 Taiwanese to over 400 business events last year Nearly 40,000 Taiwanese last year joined industry events in China, such as conferences and trade fairs, supported by the Chinese government, a study showed yesterday, as Beijing ramps up a charm offensive toward Taipei alongside military pressure. China has long taken a carrot-and-stick approach to Taiwan, threatening it with the prospect of military action while reaching out to those it believes are amenable to Beijing’s point of view. Taiwanese security officials are wary of what they see as Beijing’s influence campaigns to sway public opinion after Taipei and Beijing gradually resumed travel links halted by the COVID-19 pandemic, but the scale of
TRADE: A mandatory declaration of origin for manufactured goods bound for the US is to take effect on May 7 to block China from exploiting Taiwan’s trade channels All products manufactured in Taiwan and exported to the US must include a signed declaration of origin starting on May 7, the Bureau of Foreign Trade announced yesterday. US President Donald Trump on April 2 imposed a 32 percent tariff on imports from Taiwan, but one week later announced a 90-day pause on its implementation. However, a universal 10 percent tariff was immediately applied to most imports from around the world. On April 12, the Trump administration further exempted computers, smartphones and semiconductors from the new tariffs. In response, President William Lai’s (賴清德) administration has introduced a series of countermeasures to support affected
Pope Francis is be laid to rest on Saturday after lying in state for three days in St Peter’s Basilica, where the faithful are expected to flock to pay their respects to history’s first Latin American pontiff. The cardinals met yesterday in the Vatican’s synod hall to chart the next steps before a conclave begins to choose Francis’ successor, as condolences poured in from around the world. According to current norms, the conclave must begin between May 5 and 10. The cardinals set the funeral for Saturday at 10am in St Peter’s Square, to be celebrated by the dean of the College
CROSS-STRAIT: The vast majority of Taiwanese support maintaining the ‘status quo,’ while concern is rising about Beijing’s influence operations More than eight out of 10 Taiwanese reject Beijing’s “one country, two systems” framework for cross-strait relations, according to a survey released by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) on Thursday. The MAC’s latest quarterly survey found that 84.4 percent of respondents opposed Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula for handling cross-strait relations — a figure consistent with past polling. Over the past three years, opposition to the framework has remained high, ranging from a low of 83.6 percent in April 2023 to a peak of 89.6 percent in April last year. In the most recent poll, 82.5 percent also rejected China’s
RSS