"I'm not afraid anymore," Lin says as he scales a wall and pulls himself up to squat on what was once his front door. "There won't be anymore big quakes for a long time."
Local seismologists, although divided in their opinions, are not so sure.
"Earlier reports that this was definitely the 100-year quake were premature," says seismologist Dr Shannon Lee, a professor at the National Taiwan University of Science and Technology. "Anyone who says that Taiwan won't have another 7-plus quake for the next 100 years is risking a lot and is probably just plain wrong."
PHOTO: JAY SPEIDEN
Lee is referring to a government report issued just after the 921 quake that effectively stated Taiwan would not experience another 7-plus earthquake for at least another 100 years.
"Government seismologists released these reports for two reasons," Lee says. "To ease fears in Central Taiwan and because if they didn't nobody would be willing to continue living in Taichung or Nantou counties."
Lee points out that in January of this year Taiwan's Center for Seismological Research issued an urgent earthquake warning to relevant authorities and residents in southern Taiwan. The warning stated that Taiwan was about "to re-enter a period of large-scale earthquake activity" and that the possibility of a large quake equal to or stronger than Japan's 1995 Kobe quake was very high.
While the 921 quake was not the quake that seismologists were predicting in their warnings, Lee believes that one of the most urgent tasks ahead for seismologists is determining whether the tremendous jolt delivered by the 921 earthquake, one of the largest in Taiwan's history, actually released pressure on other faults in Taiwan -- faults that seismologists were referring to in their warnings.
"I must admit," Lee states, "the scientific community is a long way from agreeing on the risk of future quakes in Taiwan, especially since the amount of suffering and loss caused by the 921 quake has made it such a sensitive issue." Outside in the street in front of Mr Lin's collapsed home local residents also seem to be having trouble agreeing on many of the same issues.
"I wouldn't go back in there for anything," says Mrs Hsu, a former resident of the same collapsed building inhabited by Mr Lin. She is sitting on a low brick wall under the shade of a tree at the fringe of the sprawl of rubble that spills out across the road. "It's just not worth it, the stuff inside is not worth risking your life for," she says. "A big aftershock could come at any time and bring that place all the way down in a second."
Meanwhile, Taiwanese seismologists are worried about more than aftershocks.
Says Dr. Huang Bor-shouh, a research fellow specializing in seismology at Taiwan's National Central University: "There are 51 active faults in Taiwan and we have been expecting two large faults located in Chiayi and Tainan to release for a long time now."
Lee agrees with Huang that while pressure along faults in Central Taiwan have certainly been relieved, other dangerous faults, particularly faults located in Tainan and Chiayi are independent systems and were not likely to have been influenced by the 921 earthquake.
"This means that those faults are probably still under immense pressure," says Lee . "If this is the case, Taiwan could experience another huge earthquake at any given time."
Meanwhile, Wen Bing-Zheng, a seismologist at Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau Seismology Center -- the organization that released reports following the 921 quake stating that Taiwan is basically in the clear for the next 100-years -- chooses his words carefully when speaking about the possibility of future quakes. "We didn't say that it was impossible," he says slowly, "We said, and we still say that we strongly suggest, suggest, Taiwan won't have another 7-plus quake for the next hundred years."
Wen explains that the center plans to upgrade and build new monitoring stations and GPS tracking devices to better monitor seismological activity in Taiwan. "Our goal is to pinpoint the location of future quakes," Wen says, "but until we can do this, all we can say is that we believe the probability of a large quake in the near future is miniscule, but again, we cannot say for certain.
Dr. Lee is more forthright. "We should remember that anything is possible in a place as seismologically active as Taiwan and we should use this knowledge as incentive to increase preparedness and not let down our guard." He continues: "No matter what people try to tell you, in Taiwan, we can always expect another big quake."
But for local residents like Mr. Lin all the speculation, fear and prophecy means little in the face of more pressing concerns.
"We're just trying to save what we can find," Lin says as he leans heavily against a banister that protrudes from a stairwell above his head. "After that, we just want to try to get on with our lives." Lin says from his perch atop his front door. He reaches down and opens it much the way one would open an outdoor cellar.
For him, debate among seismologists over future quakes is a world away as he shoots a beam from his torch down into the gloom of what was once his living room, scouting the rubble below for a good place to land.
"Getting in there is easy, it's getting out that's the tricky part," he says as he lets his legs dangle down through the doorframe, supporting his weight with his arms on either side of the jamb. "I know it's probably not safe crawling around in here like this, but I don't think we'll have another big quake any time soon."
Even if Lin knew that local seismologists were not so sure, it's unlikely it would stop him doing what he does next. Letting go of the doorjamb, he drops silently into the blackness.
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