Ukraine is bracing for months of fierce fighting over key strongholds in the eastern Donetsk region that are at the heart of Russia’s war aims, in the first major test for Kyiv’s incoming top general Mykhailo Drapatyi and his new commanders.
Moscow’s larger forces have been inching toward the so-called “fortress belt” cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the capture of which would bring Russia closer to its goal of seizing the entire industrialized Donetsk region.
The human toll has already been high, and, despite renewed diplomatic contacts, military analysts expect Russia to intensify its offensive as winter approaches.
A visit to Kyiv last week by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner revived dormant peace talks, but there has been no sign of a breakthrough.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he expected the war to continue through the winter.
The looming battle for Donetsk is shaping up to be one of the most consequential phases of the war this year. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, capturing the remainder of the region would mark a major political and military victory.
For Ukraine, holding it is critical to protecting the backbone of its eastern defenses and validating a command shake-up aimed largely at halting Russia’s slow but persistent advance.
Recent appointments under the reform-minded Drapatyi, 43, who replaced Oleksandr Syrskyi in July, have put respected and proven commanders in charge of defending the region.
The new command inherits a relatively stable frontline as the pace of Russian gains remains slow, military analyst Emil Kastehelmi said. However, he warned that the outcome on the battlefield was unpredictable.
“It’s a situation which can still go many ways, and many scenarios are still on the table,” said Kastehelmi, cofounder of the Finland-based Black Bird conflict analysis group.
Ukraine has routinely dismissed Putin’s demands that it surrender the 15 percent to 20 percent of the Donetsk region that Russia has been unable to take by force.
Zelenskiy described its fate as “the question of this war.”
CREEPING CLOSER
Russian forces are less than 15km from Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the belt’s two main cities.
Both are under worsening strikes by killer drones and guided bombs, regional officials have said.
“In just ... months, they have gradually gone from thriving cities to places where it’s frightening just to walk down the street,” said Andriy Derun, a military manager at leading Ukrainian charity Come Back Alive, which supports the armed forces.
This month and the next could see the year’s most intense fighting, with Russia potentially trying to stage new mechanized assaults, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace senior fellow Michael Kofman said.
“As the weather conditions deteriorate, drones become less effective,” Kofman said. “And that’s usually where Russians try to return mobility to the battlefield.”
Ukraine had developed a solid defense against such attacks, he said, pointing to a failed Russian assault in July near the besieged city of Dobropillia.
NEW COMMANDERS
Overseeing the defense of Donetsk would be two of Ukraine’s best-known commanders: Andrii Biletskyi of the Third Army Corps and Denys Prokopenko of the National Guard’s First Corps Azov.
The two commanders have been credited with building disciplined and technologically advanced forces numbering in the tens of thousands.
Earlier this year, Biletskyi’s corps stabilized part of the front near Sloviansk, the northern anchor of the fortress belt. Prokopenko’s Azov thwarted a major Russian assault last year near Dobropillia that had threatened to break Ukrainian lines.
Pavlo Palisa, Zelenskiy’s military adviser, said promoting the commanders was “entirely logical,” because they were proven leaders who “enjoy respect and authority.”
Derun said they would be supported by air assault colonel Emil Ishkulov, another new-generation commander who is popular among troops for prioritizing soldiers’ lives. His 11th Army Corps covers Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Drapatyi’s predecessor Syrskyi had been criticized for what some observers said was a Soviet-style tolerance for heavy losses and micromanaging even small sections of the front.
Kofman said Drapatyi appeared to be delegating more authority to the operational-level commanders — a shift he said was aimed at making eastern defenses “a lot more cohesive.”
BUILDING ON MINOR GAINS
Ukraine enters the autumn campaign aiming to build on modest gains this year.
Kyiv said it clawed back more than 700km2 of territory in the southeast during a months-long “precision” counterattack.
Kastehelmi pointed to what he said were signs of a successful operation by Biletskyi’s Third Army Corps near the strategic town of Lyman to cut a Russian salient.
The extent remained unclear, he added.
In a video posted on Monday, Biletskyi — standing in the picturesque monastery town of Sviatohirsk, west of the salient — taunted Putin over his recent claim that Russian forces had captured it.
“This is a rear area for our corps,” he said.
Yet Ukraine’s army still lacks the manpower to stage large-scale offensive operations. Drapatyi and new Ukrainian Minister of Defence Yevhenii Khmara have yet to fix a draft system hobbled by corruption and mismanagement.
Putin said earlier this month that Russia was winning the war and that he had no doubt the Ukrainians would “crumble.”
Yet analysts said Russia has not found an effective solution to Kyiv’s drone-based defenses.
“Generally it’s difficult to see how the Russians would be able to achieve success beyond the tactical level,” Kastehelmi said.
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