Tue, Aug 20, 2024 page8

• The Liberty Times Editorial: Re-examine the nuclear-free stance

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  The National Climate Change Response Committee had its inaugural meeting at the Presidential Office on Aug. 8.

  In response to the nuclear energy issue, which is a bone of contention between the government and opposition parties and within society at large, President William Lai (賴清德) said that energy issues are not a simple matter of right or wrong from anti-nuclear or pro-nuclear standpoints.

  Every decision in the nation’s climate governance must be a multiple-choice question and even one with more than one correct answer, Lai added.

  Only then can we face the problem honestly, put forward practical responses and come up with practical solutions, he said.

  Lai’s remarks have drawn much attention as to whether they signify a major change in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government’s policy of scrapping nuclear power.

  There is a global consensus that net zero carbon emissions are essential to combat climate change. Most countries have set themselves ambitious targets and are making unremitting efforts to develop our planet sustainably.

  After taking office on May 20, Lai established the National Climate Change Response Committee and has raised the response to global climate change to the level of national security. It was the highest-level meeting about energy in Taiwan’s history. Relevant government departments, non-governmental experts and civic groups were also invited to attend the meeting, which shows the importance the Lai government attaches to energy policy.

  The meeting focused on discussing issues such as energy resources and adaptation to climate change. It reached a consensus on strengthening the development of green energy and reducing carbon emissions, and also on tasks related to adaptation. Notably, the Lai government has clearly adjusted its attitude toward the policy of scrapping nuclear power, which has been such an important feature of the DPP’s roadmap to a “nuclear-free homeland by 2025.”

  “The concept of a nuclear-free homeland is not just an ideological stance of the DPP,” Lai said.

  He said that the government would prioritize the development of diverse forms of green energy and does not rule out any energy solutions that contribute to net zero, including any new and advanced nuclear energy technologies that might emerge. This shows that Lai’s DPP government no longer regards a “nuclear-free homeland” as an ideological position and is willing to discuss Taiwan’s energy policies with a scientific and pragmatic attitude to ensure the sustainable development of the nation’s economy, industry, livelihood and safety.

  One sign of this change can be seen from the fact that the National Climate Change Response Committee’s deputy convener and Pegatron Corp (和碩) chairman Tung Tzu-hsien (童子賢), who was previously a possible choice for premier, has recently made repeated calls to extend the life of the Guosheng and Ma-anshan nuclear power plants so that nuclear and green power could coexist.

  However, this change is clearly too big for die-hard DPP supporters to accept. With this in mind, Lai set some preconditions, saying that no matter whether the nation is dealing with new nuclear energy technologies or the question of keeping or closing existing nuclear power plants, all related issues such as nuclear safety, nuclear waste disposal and legal issues must first be properly resolved through social dialogue and social consensus.

  When the government of then-president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) suspended the construction of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant in New Taipei City’s Gongliao District (貢寮) in October 2000, it caused worries about economic and industrial development, and sparked fierce confrontation between the government and the opposition. Since then, the issue of scrapping nuclear power has been a continuous bone of contention between the government and the opposition.

  The core of this confrontation is whether the DPP’s emphasis on scrapping nuclear power and developing green energy can satisfy Taiwan’s fast-growing demand for electricity.

  It is an issue on which the DPP has been repeatedly criticized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and pro-KMT business groups. In particular, former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) proposed a policy of a “nuclear-free homeland by 2025” when she took office, presenting a beautiful vision of developing green energy to completely replace nuclear power.

  The main reason why the public supports the scrapping of nuclear power is the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant disaster caused by Japan’s March 11, 2011, Tohoku earthquake and tsunami.

  That calamity caused people in Taiwan, which has similar geographical conditions to Japan, but possibly not such high nuclear safety standards, to lean toward the abolition of nuclear power.

  According to the “nuclear-free homeland by 2025” blueprint, the proportions of total electric power generated from various sources would be 50 percent from natural gas, 30 percent from coal and 20 percent from renewable sources.

  However, as of last year, the structure of Taiwan’s electricity generation was rather different. Coal was the highest at 42.24 percent, followed by natural gas at 39.57 percent, renewables at 9.47 percent, nuclear at 6.31 percent, oil at 1.34 percent and hydroelectricity at 1.08 percent.

  In other words, thermal power is still the main method of generating electricity in Taiwan, accounting for 83.14 percent of the total.

  Compared to gas, coal-fired generators can cause serious air pollution. Due to this concern, coupled with resistance from local governments and public protests, the government does not plan to build any new coal-fired units in the run-up to next year. When coal-fired units are decommissioned, they would be converted into gas-fired units.

  Natural gas power generation is not free of such issues. Fierce protests over the construction of Taiwan’s third liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal on the coast of Taoyuan, which even became the subject of a referendum, have made it impossible for natural gas to reach 50 percent of total power generation by next year.

  Furthermore, obstacles to building LNG terminals are not the only issue confronted by natural gas. There is also a geopolitical risk that China might blockade the Taiwan Strait.

  The current buffer stock of LNG, as set by the government, is a minimum of seven days’ supply, which would be increased to at least 14 days in 2027. It cannot be denied that a reserve of this size is only sufficient for peacetime needs. If a geopolitical conflict should break out, and especially if there is a shipping blockade, the buffer stock would definitely not be enough. The potential difficulty of obtaining gas supplies from abroad is therefore a major national security risk.

  Perhaps the biggest problem is that the target for renewable energy, which was supposed to replace nuclear power, was originally set at 20 percent by next year, but by last year it had only reached 9.47 percent, which is less than half of the target.

  The government has in recent years made great efforts to develop green energy. Impressive results have been achieved with regard to solar and wind power, which have grown rapidly. However, doubling the power generation ratio to 20 percent in just one year would be almost impossible.

  Furthermore, local politicians often get involved in solar and offshore wind power development projects, and some of them have been detained and prosecuted for corruption. This meddling has caused added difficulties for the development of renewable energy.

  For these reasons, the goal of reaching 20 percent power generation from renewable energy by next year would definitely not be achieved.

  The issue of energy has long put the DPP on the defensive. While the rapidly developing semiconductor and artificial intelligence industries consume a staggering amount of electricity, the DPP government’s firm position on scrapping nuclear power seems to have become an article of faith that leaves no room for rational discussion.

  For this reason, people feel uncertain about whether Taiwan has a shortage of electricity. Power outages are really a problem of grid resilience, but some people make it their business to exaggerate the occurrence of outages and portray them as being due to a shortage of power, which makes the public even more doubtful.

  The public’s doubts about the safety of nuclear power contributed to Taiwan’s move toward a “nuclear-free homeland,” but rising concerns about power shortages led to the passage in 2018 of a referendum in favor of “using nuclear power to cultivate green energy.” This indicates that the public’s pre-existing perception of the dangers of nuclear power has been replaced by fear of power shortages.

  Furthermore, while the new technology of nuclear fusion has not yet reached the stage of commercial operation, moderate use of nuclear power seems to have become acceptable to the public. Even Japan, despite having been hit by the Tohoku earthquake and Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear disaster, has started agreeing to restart some of its nuclear power plants.

  With big changes happening at home and abroad, the vision of a “nuclear-free homeland by 2025” should be re-examined based on the real problems that Taiwan faces, with the aim of launching a second energy transition so that Taiwan’s energy production can develop in a way that meets its needs.

  At the same time, the nation must also comply with the international goals of energy conservation, carbon reduction and net zero carbon emissions, to qualify as a responsible member of the global village.

  Translated by Julian Clegg
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