In Taiwan, attention is focused on activity that directly affects the nation’s sovereignty. Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy blockade drills, PLA Air Force fighters crossing the Taiwan Strait median line, the potential of conflict arising from incidents in the sea between Kinmen and China’s Xiamen and sand dredging around Matsu all directly impinge upon Taiwan’s sovereignty.
This activity is just part of the provocations against regional neighbors that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the PLA are engaged in. It is important not to miss the forest for the trees, and to understand the threat from a wider perspective.
The CCP is the sole antagonist driving the expansion of an international coalition against it in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
With increasing tensions between Beijing and Manila over provocative activities by the PLA and China Coast Guard in the part of the South China Sea that Manila calls the West Philippine Sea, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has announced countermeasures against “illegal, coercive, aggressive and dangerous attacks” by the China Coast Guard. These countermeasures include expanding the role of the military in supporting the Philippine government’s maritime council by involving the Armed Forces of the Philippines, not just its navy.
This is only the latest hardening of Manila’s stance against China, from a short-lived position of friendly engagement to a policy of “hard-balancing” that has not only entailed closer ties with Washington, including potentially giving the US military access to bases in the Philippines, but also significantly increasing its own military capabilities, such as acquiring BrahMos supersonic missiles from India and entering talks with Sweden over a major fighter jet deal.
The CCP is well aware that, with the Philippines’ northernmost island, Mavulis, less than 150km from the southern tip of Taiwan, increased fortifications and military coordination there, especially when Manila is cooperating with the US, endangers its ability to control the South China Sea and execute an invasion of Taiwan.
Beijing has vociferously objected, but the escalation is all its own doing.
More concerning to Beijing is India’s recent involvement, which extends beyond selling the BrahMos missiles.
When the Permanent Court of Arbitration found for Manila and against China in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) case in 2019, India simply “noted” the verdict.
Last week, Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited the Philippines and met with Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Marcos. Jaishankar spoke about adherence, not in part but in full, to the UNCLOS, and voiced India’s support for the Philippines in protecting its national sovereignty.
This marks a significant shift in India’s position, and it is very much related to New Delhi’s problems with the CCP’s expansionist activity on its own border with China, and with the amount of Indian trade that goes through the South China Sea.
Again, Beijing was furious. Again, it had nobody to blame but itself.
There are calls for India to now formalize a security relationship with Manila, as the US has done.
Marcos is well aware that the Philippines cannot take on the PLA on its own, and that the answer is in engaging with nations with similar security concerns.
This is the same logic that has informed President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) cross-strait policy.
The government should look into approaching Manila about the possibility of security ties. There are clear obstacles, not least because Manila adheres to a “one China” policy, but also because incoming president William Lai (賴清德) will have an opposition-majority legislature to contend with.
The bird flu outbreak at US dairy farms keeps finding alarming new ways to surprise scientists. Last week, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed that H5N1 is spreading not just from birds to herds, but among cows. Meanwhile, media reports say that an unknown number of cows are asymptomatic. Although the risk to humans is still low, it is clear that far more work needs to be done to get a handle on the reach of the virus and how it is being transmitted. That would require the USDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to get
For the incoming Administration of President-elect William Lai (賴清德), successfully deterring a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) attack or invasion of democratic Taiwan over his four-year term would be a clear victory. But it could also be a curse, because during those four years the CCP’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will grow far stronger. As such, increased vigilance in Washington and Taipei will be needed to ensure that already multiplying CCP threat trends don’t overwhelm Taiwan, the United States, and their democratic allies. One CCP attempt to overwhelm was announced on April 19, 2024, namely that the PLA had erred in combining major missions
On April 11, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a speech at a joint meeting of the US Congress in Washington, in which he said that “China’s current external stance and military actions present an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge … to the peace and stability of the international community.” Kishida emphasized Japan’s role as “the US’ closest ally.” “The international order that the US worked for generations to build is facing new challenges,” Kishida said. “I understand it is a heavy burden to carry such hopes on your shoulders,” he said. “Japan is already standing shoulder to shoulder
Former president Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國) used to push for reforms to protect Taiwan by adopting the “three noes” policy as well as “Taiwanization.” Later, then-president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) wished to save the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) by pushing for the party’s “localization,” hoping to compete with homegrown political parties as a pro-Taiwan KMT. However, the present-day members of the KMT do not know what they are talking about, and do not heed the two former presidents’ words, so the party has suffered a third consecutive defeat in the January presidential election. Soon after gaining power with the help of the KMT’s