The voter turnout for Saturday’s presidential election was a respectable 71 percent, but still 3 percent less than four years ago.
Although this election was crucial, it was not as crucial as some outsiders might have thought. Taiwanese had their finger on the pulse of what the nation’s diverse needs were and how they could best be met.
Four basic takeaways explain this:
The first takeaway is the presidency. The victory of the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) candidate, Vice President William Lai (賴清德), was a major change from the past. The nation stayed with the DPP after eight years, despite China’s intimidation attempts and despite Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) garnering 26.46 percent of the vote.
The DPP broke the pattern of alternating party presidencies. Lai broke this tradition of voters alternating trust with one party and then the other. Lai’s victory marks three consecutive terms for the DPP with the possibility of four.
However. the day did not completely end in the DPP’s favor. While this was a great start, Lai won with only 40.05 percent of the vote. The Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) candidate, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), followed with 33.49 percent. Both parties lost votes due to Ko’s participation in the election, which was a game changer, particularly in the Legislative Yuan.
Understanding the Legislative Yuan vote is the second takeaway. In it, the DPP lost 10 seats and the majority it had held for the past eight years, dropping from 61 to 51 seats out of the 113-seat legislature. This was the first time in the past 16 years that the party holding the presidency could not count on having a legislative majority.
It is not the end of the world for the DPP, but it means it might have to do some horse-trading. However, while the KMT gained seats, it also only has 52 seats plus the two independent legislators who align with it. No party won 57 seats — a legislative majority. Therefore, the TPP, which garnered eight seats, could become a kingmaker, depending on which party it teams up with to name the speaker of the legislature.
However, the TPP’s position is also not that strong. It only gained three seats, and those were from the party vote. The TPP had no individually elected district candidates.
This imbalance is not the same one that former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) faced in 2000 and 2004 when the KMT and the People First Party (PFP) united against him in a pan-blue opposition. Nonetheless, the TPP has bargaining power; it could help either the DPP or the KMT to name the speaker.
This leads to the third takeaway: the role of third parties in Taiwanese politics.
Taiwan has not lacked in having three or more parties running in elections. These parties rise to meet and express certain needs, but they lack sustainability. The past is littered with the fallen bodies of such parties. Taiwan has seen the rise and fall of the New Party, the PFP, the Taiwan Solidarity Union and the New Power Party (NPP), to name a few.
This is what the TPP and other third parties face. Compare Ko’s 26.46 percent of the vote with PFP Chairman James Soong’s (宋楚瑜) 36.84 percent when running as an independent when he almost won the 2000 election. Soong went on to form the PFP, which played a dominant role, but his party eventually faded. He could not build a long-standing team and this proved to be the case where if you strike the shepherd, the sheep would scatter.
I do not expect the TPP to survive the next presidential election in 2028.
Moreover, if one looks at the popular party vote for the legislature, the DPP added more than 150,000 votes to its popular vote in 2020, and the KMT gained about 60,000 votes over the same period. They both maxed out, naming 13 legislators-at-large.
So where did the eight TPP legislators-at-large come from? It had five legislators-at-large; it only gained three more. This time, the losers of the popular vote were the NPP and the Taiwan Statebuilding Party.
Taiwan is in need of third parties and they constantly rise to express the needs of the moment, but none have taken hold.
This leads to the final takeaway: the role of China. Despite its threats and bullying, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) did not influence this year’s elections as much as it hoped. Its time would be better spent trying to solve its own growing problems of economic downturn, corruption and despotism.
Even with the good weather, voter turnout in Taiwan dropped slightly, and Taiwanese put more trust in the DPP in dealing with the PRC. Taiwanese were satisfied with the “status quo” and their de facto independence. There are more pressing needs than saying the dreaded “I” word: Independence.
The KMT sensed this and did not invite pro-unification former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) to speak at its final pre-election rally. His speaking would have only put another nail in the party’s coffin. What the KMT still lacks is the ability to forgo mentioning the fake “1992 consensus.”
With the temporary acceptance of the TPP, Taiwanese were saying that they wanted the DPP to figure out a way to foster trade with China, while keeping it at arm’s length.
I voted in this election and all in all, it proved to be a satisfying day. There were no dominant winners. The DPP learned that it needs to work harder to maintain viable district legislators. The KMT is learning to abandon its pro-unification jargon. The TPP needs to do its homework if it expects to survive. I still do not think it will; its members would only morph into another need of the nation as it progresses.
Jerome Keating is a writer based in Taipei.
Minister of Labor Hung Sun-han (洪申翰) on April 9 said that the first group of Indian workers could arrive as early as this year as part of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center in India and the India Taipei Association. Signed in February 2024, the MOU stipulates that Taipei would decide the number of migrant workers and which industries would employ them, while New Delhi would manage recruitment and training. Employment would be governed by the laws of both countries. Months after its signing, the two sides agreed that 1,000 migrant workers from India would
In recent weeks, Taiwan has witnessed a surge of public anxiety over the possible introduction of Indian migrant workers. What began as a policy signal from the Ministry of Labor quickly escalated into a broader controversy. Petitions gathered thousands of signatures within days, political figures issued strong warnings, and social media became saturated with concerns about public safety and social stability. At first glance, this appears to be a straightforward policy question: Should Taiwan introduce Indian migrant workers or not? However, this framing is misleading. The current debate is not fundamentally about India. It is about Taiwan’s labor system, its
On March 31, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs released declassified diplomatic records from 1995 that drew wide domestic media attention. One revelation stood out: North Korea had once raised the possibility of diplomatic relations with Taiwan. In a meeting with visiting Chinese officials in May 1995, as then-Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民) prepared for a visit to South Korea, North Korean officials objected to Beijing’s growing ties with Seoul and raised Taiwan directly. According to the newly released records, North Korean officials asked why Pyongyang should refrain from developing relations with Taiwan while China and South Korea were expanding high-level
Japan’s imminent easing of arms export rules has sparked strong interest from Warsaw to Manila, Reuters reporting found, as US President Donald Trump wavers on security commitments to allies, and the wars in Iran and Ukraine strain US weapons supplies. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling party approved the changes this week as she tries to invigorate the pacifist country’s military industrial base. Her government would formally adopt the new rules as soon as this month, three Japanese government officials told Reuters. Despite largely isolating itself from global arms markets since World War II, Japan spends enough on its own
RSS