Summer in Taiwan has never been pleasant, but summer this year was tough for all of us. Although Taiwan is no stranger to sweltering heat and choking humidity during summer, this year was beyond what we were used to. This time, we all found ourselves in the grip of a formidable adversary: a potent El Nino event. The convergence of these two factors prompts a critical examination of the combination of subtropical temperatures, and El Nino conditions induce a substantial investigation of Taiwan’s vulnerability to climatic shocks and serves as an explicit reminder of the urgent need for global action on achieving emission targets.
Taiwan experienced an unprecedentedly intense summer this year. On July 10, as the mercury soared to staggering heights, the New Taipei City Government urgently demanded that venue providers open their doors to homeless people. Then, in alignment with the Ministry of Health and Welfare’s guidance, the city government had to take proactive steps to buffer the homeless and other vulnerable members of society against the adverse impacts of the heat wave. The impact was not merely discomfort; it is a wake-up call to the profound changes under way in our climate system.
El Nino has nothing to do with anthropogenic climate change; it is a natural event that occurs in the tropical parts of the Pacific Ocean. It is mainly an anomalous warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. It disrupts the ordinary exchange of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere and leads to altered weather patterns in different regions.
Under normal circumstances, trade winds blow from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific, and push warm waters from South America toward Asia. However, during El Nino, these trade winds slow down and westbound warm waters slosh back into the eastern Pacific.
Deviations in weather patterns are inevitable, with some areas experiencing upward trends in temperatures and becoming drier, whereas some others might have abnormally high rainfall and floods.
In other words, El Nino affects temperatures, precipitation and even tropical storm behaviors. This is why we all had an unbearably hot summer.
The El Nino-induced heat during this scorching summer was no isolated incident.
It was a harbinger of what is in store for us if the international community fails to meet emissions reduction targets. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the likelihood of experiencing a year with an average temperature over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels has increased to 66 percent in the coming five years: We might have almost reached the point of no return in halting climate change. This year’s scorching summer is a stark reminder that the consequences of failing to achieve emissions reduction targets are both real and immediate.
Like other island nations in the Pacific, Taiwan is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. According to the Taiwan Adaptation Platform, surface temperature has been constantly increasing for a century in Taiwan and under different emissions scenarios.
By the end of the 21st century, Taiwan might observe significant increases in surface temperatures by 1.8°C and 3.6°C.
In tandem with rising temperatures, the seasons are changing. Between 1957 and 2006, summers in Taiwan increased by an average of 27.8 days, whereas winters have decreased by 29.7 days.
This also affected the precipitation patterns. Although the total amount of rainfall did not change much, dry and wet seasons are now more distinct. We have more days of heavy rain and significantly fewer days of light rain. This is one of the significant indicators of flood and drought risk on the island. Keeping the bitter memories of the intense drought in central and southern Taiwan in 2021 in mind, it is safe to forecast that changing precipitation patterns would increase the water stress on Taiwan.
Taiwan must adopt a double-edged strategy: adaptation and mitigation.
In recent years, Taiwan has made significant steps to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change with the guidance of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act (溫室氣體減量及管理法) of 2015. Adaptation efforts are concentrated on buffering communities and infrastructure to the damaging effects of climate change, such as strengthening disaster management, improving water resource management, upgrading coastal infrastructure, promoting climate-resilient agriculture and raising public awareness.
Simultaneously, Taiwan increased its efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change by reducing emissions. These efforts include promoting renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, reducing transportation emissions and carbon pricing.
Although it is primarily because of the El Nino event, this year’s sweltering summer is a microcosm of the broader climate crisis. The El Nino experience this year should trigger the international community toward cooperation and concerted action, as no region is immune to the hostile impacts of climate change.
Taiwan is one of several countries heavily exposed to the effects of climate change. In recent years, the island has borne witness to a series of climatic shocks from intense droughts to torrential rains and scorching heat waves. Despite its economic strength, Taiwan is not impervious to the effects of environmental degradation. Heightened public awareness and fully-fledged action against climate change are immediate needs.
As a developed nation, Taiwan has a certain resilience, but its resources are not unlimited. Taiwan, alongside other nations, must take solid steps to mitigate the effects of climate change.
Harun Talha Ayanoglu is a PhD candidate at National Chengchi University and a Taiwan Center for Security Studies research assistant. His research interests are climate change and non-state political violence.
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