On the 26th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to China, and three years since the implementation of the National Security Law, the Hong Kong Police Force this month announced life-long arrest warrants for eight exiled democracy advocates. China-appointed Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee (李家超) even said that wanted activists should be treated like “rats in the street,” further indicating the end of freedom, human rights and democracy in the territory.
Following months of anti-extradition protests in 2019 against the government and the Chinese Communist Party’s tightening grip on Hong Kong, Beijing in 2020 imposed the National Security Law on the territory, which gave the Chinese government sweeping powers over Hong Kong, criminalized whatever it considers subversion, secessionism, terrorism or collusion with foreign forces and included penalties of up to life in prison. Although the Hong Kong government promised the law would not be applied retroactively, by January 2021, the police had arrested dozens of democracy advocates, legislators and academics, including those known as the Hong Kong 47, and charged them with conspiracy to commit subversion. Over the past three years, more than 50 civic organizations have been disbanded, more than 1,000 political dissidents have been imprisoned and numerous media outlets have been forced to cease operations, an Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China statement said.
This month, Hong Kong’s Legislative Council unanimously voted to overhaul district-level elections by drastically reducing the number of directly elected seats from 452 to 88, running counter to the Basic Law and massively reducing democratic freedoms. Candidates who want to run in the next election must now pass a national security background check, which is obviously aimed at barring democracy advocates from seeking office. Beijing and Hong Kong’s administrative leader openly said “we will completely exile anti-China forces.” The Hong Kong Police Force simultaneously issued arrest warrants for eight pro-democracy advocates, who now live in Australia, Canada, the UK and the US, offering HK$1 million (US$128,025) rewards for information that would lead to an arrest.
The US has condemned the move, saying that “the extraterritorial application of the Beijing-imposed National Security Law is a dangerous precedent that threatens the human rights and fundamental freedoms of people all over the world.” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called it “unacceptable,” while British Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs James Cleverly described the warrant as “a further example of the authoritarian reach of China’s extraterritorial law.”
Even though China aims to impose more control over Hong Kong, the authoritarian law has driven citizens away. Official census statistics show that the territory’s population has declined since 2020, the same year the security law took effect. About 93,000 residents left in 2020, followed by another 23,000 in 2021 and 68,300 last year. Experts have said there are two main reasons for this mass exodus of Hong Kongers: the political unrest in the territory and the tightening of restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The second might have been temporary, but the first is likely to result in permanent change. Those who go back would be returning to a life lacking democracy.
In the face of China’s ambition to “unite” with Taiwan, Taiwanese have rejected Beijing’s “one country, two systems” proposal, which proved a failure in Hong Kong. However, some candidates in January’s presidential election and politicians have proposed so-called “peace negotiations” with China, in spite of China’s persistence on the “one China” principle and that unification would eliminate free choice in Taiwan.
Taiwanese must be careful who they vote for. They have a choice between protecting the dignity and autonomy of Taiwan, or risking the nation’s sovereignty and becoming “rats in the street.”
In the US’ National Security Strategy (NSS) report released last month, US President Donald Trump offered his interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. The “Trump Corollary,” presented on page 15, is a distinctly aggressive rebranding of the more than 200-year-old foreign policy position. Beyond reasserting the sovereignty of the western hemisphere against foreign intervention, the document centers on energy and strategic assets, and attempts to redraw the map of the geopolitical landscape more broadly. It is clear that Trump no longer sees the western hemisphere as a peaceful backyard, but rather as the frontier of a new Cold War. In particular,
When it became clear that the world was entering a new era with a radical change in the US’ global stance in US President Donald Trump’s second term, many in Taiwan were concerned about what this meant for the nation’s defense against China. Instability and disruption are dangerous. Chaos introduces unknowns. There was a sense that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) might have a point with its tendency not to trust the US. The world order is certainly changing, but concerns about the implications for Taiwan of this disruption left many blind to how the same forces might also weaken
As the new year dawns, Taiwan faces a range of external uncertainties that could impact the safety and prosperity of its people and reverberate in its politics. Here are a few key questions that could spill over into Taiwan in the year ahead. WILL THE AI BUBBLE POP? The global AI boom supported Taiwan’s significant economic expansion in 2025. Taiwan’s economy grew over 7 percent and set records for exports, imports, and trade surplus. There is a brewing debate among investors about whether the AI boom will carry forward into 2026. Skeptics warn that AI-led global equity markets are overvalued and overleveraged
As the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) races toward its 2027 modernization goals, most analysts fixate on ship counts, missile ranges and artificial intelligence. Those metrics matter — but they obscure a deeper vulnerability. The true future of the PLA, and by extension Taiwan’s security, might hinge less on hardware than on whether the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can preserve ideological loyalty inside its own armed forces. Iran’s 1979 revolution demonstrated how even a technologically advanced military can collapse when the social environment surrounding it shifts. That lesson has renewed relevance as fresh unrest shakes Iran today — and it should