On Wednesday, China, Iran and Pakistan held their first trilateral consultation on counterterrorism and security at the ministerial level, during which they exchanged views on regional counterterrorism efforts and preventing the cross-border movement of terrorists. They also decided to hold the consultations regularly.
Most analysts agree that the meeting focused on the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which operates in Pakistan and has long opposed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project.
Balochistan Province, in southwestern Pakistan on the border with Iran, covers 40 percent of Pakistan’s territory and has a population of more than 12 million, more than half of whom belong to the Baloch ethnic group. Dissatisfaction about being ruled by Pakistan’s main ethnic group, the Punjabis, has sparked armed protest movements since Pakistan gained its independence from Britain in 1947.
When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, it instigated anti-government activities in Pakistan to prevent Islamabad from supporting Afghanistan, which led to the establishment of the forerunners of the BLA. The Baloch independence movement quieted down after the Soviet Union broke up, but after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the movement received funding from the US in exchange for providing intelligence about the Taliban.
The CPEC, which the BLA is intent on blocking, is the biggest single-country investment project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative. It aims to build a railway connecting Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region with Gwadar Port in Balochistan, stretching 3,000km and spanning nine special economic zones. The railway is expected to open in 2040, enabling goods from northwestern China to be exported via Gwadar Port. The plan also includes roads, oil and gas pipelines, and fiber-optic cable systems in areas along the route, as well as an expansion of Gwadar Port, entailing an estimated US$60 billion in investment.
After the CPEC project was proposed, the BLA retaliated against Chinese in Pakistan, targeting travelers, workers and diplomatic personnel.
From the BLA’s point of view, Pakistan’s central government could not exercise deep control over the province.
However, once the CPEC’s railway and roads are completed, Islamabad’s forces would be able to reach everywhere.
From China’s point of view, the project would help resolve the “Malacca dilemma,” which refers to China’s overdependence on shipping lanes passing through the Strait of Malacca. This makes the CPEC indispensable for China.
China has sidestepped the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) multilateral cooperation mechanism to engage directly with stakeholder countries. The SCO, which was established in 2001 under the leadership of China and Russia, lists counterterrorism as one of its main goals. Its other members were originally only Central Asian countries, but it has gradually expanded in the past few years. Pakistan joined in 2017 and Iran in January.
However, on this occasion China chose not to go through SCO channels. Its intention might have been to avoid possible intervention by Russia and India, which are members of the group.
India has always been at odds with Pakistan on the issue of sovereignty over Kashmir, so it wants to disrupt Pakistan’s internal affairs by supporting the BLA.
Russia has long been a rival of China for leadership at the SCO. More recently, Moscow has become embroiled in its invasion of Ukraine, making China more inclined to disregard Russia and take regional affairs into its own hands.
Yang Chung-hsin is a civil servant in Taichung.
Translated by Julian Clegg
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