Two sleek new roads vanish into mountain tunnels high above a sleepy Montenegrin village, the unlikely endpoint of a billion-dollar project bankrolled by China that is threatening to derail the tiny country’s economy.
The Montenegrin government has already burned through US$944 million in Chinese loans to complete the first stretch of road, just 41km, making it one of the world’s most expensive lengths of pavement.
Chinese workers have spent six years carving tunnels through solid rock and raising concrete pillars above gorges and canyons, but the road in effect goes nowhere. Another 130km still needs to be built at a cost of US$1.2 billion or more.
“The construction looks impressive, but we must not stop at this,” said 67-year-old Dragan, who retired to the village of Matesevo. “It’s like buying an expensive car and just leaving it parked in the garage.”
Critics question how the rest of the road can be paid for. They also highlight environmental damage caused by the construction, along with corruption allegations over the awarding of work contracts.
However, locals are inclined to talk up the positive aspects.
“This story has some good sides for us villagers. Some managed to sell their land and leave, which was impossible before,” said one villager, whose home sits meters from gargantuan concrete pillars propping up the four-lane highway.
“I manage to sell some vegetables and chickens to the workers,” said the man, who did not want to be named, adding that dirt mounds from the construction stop the nearby river from flooding.
The section linking Matesevo to a town near the capital, Podgorica, is projected to be the most difficult part to build.
The road is meant to connect the Adriatic port of Bar in the south with the Serbian border in the north, with the intention that Serbians can then extend it to their capital, Belgrade.
It is unclear where the money is to come from or how Montenegro — a country with a GDP of US$6 billion — can repay its existing debt to China.
If Montenegro cannot pay, it faces arbitration in Beijing and could be forced to give up control of key infrastructure, according to a copy of the contract seen by Agence France-Presse (AFP).
China has been widely criticized for saddling small countries with unmanageable debt as part of its global Belt and Road Initiative.
Critics worry that it would use financial leverage to boost its political power, in what they call “debt-trap diplomacy.”
Chinese officials have strenuously denied any ulterior motive to the investment in Montenegro and the wider region.
“This cooperation is mutually beneficial,” the Chinese embassy in Montenegro said in a statement last month. “If someone puts negative labels on China’s investment, it is not only unfair to China, but also disrespectful to the countries of the western Balkans.”
With Montenegro’s first repayment due in July, it could become the first European country to put those claims to the test.
“If we do not find sources of funding to build on, then we are in big trouble,” Montenegrin Minister of Capital Investments Mladen Bojanic told AFP, saying he was committed to finishing the road.
Bojanic is trying to get help from the EU to rescue a project he bitterly opposed when he was in opposition, labeling it risky and reckless.
Others add “corrupt” to the description. More than one-third of local subcontractors chosen to work on the project had links to the previous government administration.
There were no public tenders, and the relationship between payments received and the work carried out was not clear, according to anti-corruption group MANS.
“Decisions on construction were wrongly made out of the public eye, and that is something we will now have to pay for,” MANS Investigative Center director Dejan Milovac said.
The current government, elected in December last year, has promised to investigate any corruption claims.
Further questions have been asked about environmental damage after construction work ruined a UNESCO-protected stretch of river near Matesevo.
Problems with the project were not unforeseen. Several experts told the government a decade ago that it was not viable.
They warned that any benefits to commerce and tourism on the Adriatic coast, or development for poorer northern regions, would never outweigh the costs.
The current government has calculated that revenue from tolls cannot cover the road’s annual maintenance, estimated at US$94 million.
“It would take at least 22,000 to 25,000 vehicles a day for the highway to pay off,” civil engineer Ivan Kekovic said.
That is roughly four times the number he could foresee on the busiest stretch. Even this gloomy assessment might be optimistic if all Montenegrins think like Zeljko Rajkovic, a 55-year-old teacher in Kolasin, close to Matesevo.
He weighs up the benefits of heading to Podgorica on the new road: 30 minutes of travel rather than 90 minutes on the old road, and improved safety.
Then he considers the downsides: tolls each way and extra fuel consumption.
“I will only use the new road if there’s a big storm or an emergency,” he said.
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