Nobody knows whether there will be a war between the US and China, but the two powers will surely cross swords in various international fora, with next week’s virtual World Health Assembly (WHA) being round one of their international trial of strength.
Although US President Joe Biden is continuing former US president Donald Trump’s anti-China orientation, his approach is more delicate. He sent retired US senator Chris Dodd on a visit to Taiwan in the middle of last month just as US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry was visiting China, and the US continues to sell arms to Taiwan.
The purpose of the Taiwan visit, as well as maintaining a diplomatic balance across the Taiwan Strait, was to send Beijing the message that the US will help Taiwan defend itself.
The Biden administration’s actions so far show that “Taiwan not declaring independence and China not using military force” is still the Taiwan Strait policy that best serves US interests. Even US National Security Council Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific Kurt Campbell, Biden’s “Asia czar” who has consistently taken a hardline stance against China, is in favor of the US maintaining strategic ambiguity regarding the Strait.
Biden has made reintegration with the international community his top foreign-relations priority.
By reverting to multilateralism and strengthening ties with US allies, he hopes to restore the US-led international order. Of course, responsibility for the success or failure of this effort falls on the shoulders of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
The space available to Taiwan on the international stage is the biggest challenge to Beijing’s abilities, as well as to its bottom line. This is why the communique released at a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting on May 5 expressed support for Taiwan’s participation in the WHA.
On May 7, the US Department of State issued a news statement signed by Blinken, titled “Restoring Taiwan’s Appropriate Place at the World Health Assembly.” This was intended to tell China that it should not obstruct Taiwan from participating as an observer at the WHA, as it has in previous years, and from contributing its valuable experience in fighting COVID-19 to help end the pandemic as soon as possible.
It is noteworthy that the remarks in the G7 communique concerning Taiwan’s WHA participation were placed in the final paragraph of the section dealing with China, while a further sentence in the “East and South China Seas” section encourages the two sides of the Strait to resolve their issues peacefully.
Blinken’s statement emphasized Taiwan’s importance in international health security, but avoided referring to Taiwan as an independent country or political entity. These statements show that these countries, headed by the US, are still taking an ambiguous attitude toward cross-strait issues and avoiding sovereignty disputes.
This is also evidenced in the French Senate’s unopposed adoption on May 6 of a resolution on “Taiwan’s participation in the work of several international organizations.”
Europe and the US know where China’s bottom line is on the Taiwan issue and do not want to get into a military conflict with Beijing over Taiwan’s independence. Otherwise, considering how strong the international anti-China atmosphere is, they could, on the precondition of not breaking diplomatic relations with China, first test Beijing’s reaction by establishing diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
This year’s WHA is the first time that the Biden administration and China have wrangled over the Taiwan issue at a major international conference, and both sides were under pressure not to lose.
The deadline for Taiwan to be invited to this year’s assembly has passed, so it cannot attend. This happened despite the US having mobilized all the forces at its disposal. The US has lost the first round of its contest with China, and would have to intensify its efforts to rally its allies to put pressure on Beijing, otherwise it would not be able to regain its former leadership position.
At the same time, in the current international environment, China certainly mustered the support of third-world countries to oppose Taiwan’s participation in the WHA, otherwise Beijing’s international influence would have been brought into question, and the Chinese government would have had a hard time explaining itself to its citizens.
Boxers act tough by goading one another during weigh-in. The March 18-19 US-China strategic dialogue in Anchorage, Alaska, the April 22-23 Leaders’ Summit on Climate and the May 7 virtual session of the UN Security Council were all just weigh-ins, but this month’s tussle over Taiwan’s participation in the WHA has been the real first round.
The results of these events represent the relative ups and downs of US and Chinese power. Whatever happens, Taiwan must have a playbook about how to respond. If not, how can Taiwan maintain its place on the international stage?
Ball Chang is an associate professor at Chihlee Institute of Technology’s Department of Applied English.
Translated by Julian Clegg
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