As expected in the Kaohsiung mayoral by-election, former vice premier Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁), the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, won with more than 670,000 votes, while the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate, Kaohsiung City Councilor Jane Lee (李眉蓁), received more than 240,000 votes and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate, Kaohsiung City Councilor Wu Yi-jheng (吳益政), received less than 40,000 votes.
At first glance, Chen won a clear victory, but he received fewer votes than when he ran in the 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral election, which could affect his political momentum and ranking in the DPP.
The KMT received the lowest number of votes ever in the city, which might make it more difficult for the party to expand in southern Taiwan, while the TPP had the embarrassment of receiving less than 5 percent of the vote.
The results have thus revealed the Achilles’ heel of Chen, the KMT and the TPP.
Chen’s brand is not so strong after all: A civic group launched the recall of then-Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), the DPP leadership rolled out the red carpet for him during the campaign, and DPP mayors and county commissioners appeared on the campaign trail with him. All of these highlight how Chen’s limited appeal always requires the party to put its resources at his disposal.
Chen will need to work hard to fulfill his campaign promise to “achieve four years of work in just two years” if he wants to differentiate himself and project a great leadership style. To maximize his chances in a 2022 re-election bid, he would need to stand out so that he can build political momentum and promote his status among the generation of middle-aged politicians.
The KMT’s low number of votes was a heavy blow, revealing its inability to mobilize southern Taiwan, which could jeopardize the 2022 local elections. More importantly, the party’s tradition of infighting has returned, as some members are planning to force KMT Chairman Johnny Chiang (江啟臣) to take responsibility by stepping down, putting the party at greater risk.
To save the KMT from extinction, perhaps only two strategies remain: First, its efforts at talent recruitment must go beyond the traditional factional framework. Only by recruiting visionary dark horses with striking expertise could it offer voters a fresh image. Second, the leadership must improve their ability to counterbalance the DPP and dominate the issues, so voters see it as an opposition party capable of restraining the ruling party.
The TPP is as much at risk as the KMT. TPP Chairman Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) glory has faded since the dismal by-election results.
The defeat also revealed the party’s two greatest weaknesses: It is difficult for Ko to extend his popularity to the party’s candidates, and, after failing to increase its following, the party will have an even harder time finding strong candidates.
In particular, if Ko has presidential ambitions, he will not have a chance in the 2024 presidential election unless the TPP makes great gains in the 2022 local elections.
Judging from the by-election results, the only solution might be for the KMT and the TPP to form an alliance, where Ko would support the KMT in the local elections so that the KMT would support his presidential bid.
While Ko enjoys greater momentum than any of his potential KMT rivals, many inside the KMT have presidential dreams, so the real question is whether they would be willing to yield to Ko.
Niu Tse-hsun is a professor in Chinese Culture University’s department of advertising.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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