Amid increasing tensions between China and the US, Beijing has vented its anger at Taiwan and increased its coercive and aggressive military threats toward the nation.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), who is also the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has made up his mind to conquer Taiwan in the near future. The question is not if, but when he will take action against Taiwan.
The US has not expressed clearly that it will defend Taiwan against Chinese attacks.
In May, Qiao Liang (喬良), a retired Chinese air force general, said that although he did not agree that Taiwan should be invaded now, China had determined that if it invaded Taiwan, the US would not intervene directly through military means, but would join with other countries to conduct an economic embargo on China.
Russia’s invasion of Crimea in March 2014 was not stopped by the military forces of the US or other Western countries. Their economic embargo on Russia was not effective, and was abandoned after a few years. Such examples would certainly encourage China to invade Taiwan.
Taiwan is on the front line facing China to protect the free world and is at the midpoint of the first island chain. Although it has strong defenses, it would require the aid of the US military in the event of a Chinese invasion.
If the US did not come to Taiwan’s aid, other Asian countries could not trust the US anymore and could easily surrender to China.
Chinese strategists have already said that after taking over Taiwan, they could conduct naval and aerial blockades to suffocate Japan and use Taiwan’s military bases to threaten Japan and the US.
To the east of Taiwan, the Pacific Ocean drops 4,000m and China could easily launch nuclear submarines from there to attack the US. Many optical cables that are crucial for important international communications also go through Taiwan.
Furthermore, Taiwan is the only country possessing the advanced semiconductor technology to build the smallest and most powerful electronic devices, which are important for military applications. The free world cannot afford to allow China to grab such technologies.
It is certainly smarter to deter a war than to fight one. China would not attack Taiwan if it realized that it could not win.
The US can do the following to deter a Chinese invasion:
First, it should provide financial aid to Taiwan to acquire military assets. On Sept. 14, 2016, the US signed a 10-year memorandum of understanding on military aid spanning fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2028 to provide US$38 billion in military aid to Israel. The aid averages US$3.8 billion per year.
China poses the greatest threat to US security, but the US requires Taiwan to pay for the military equipment it purchases from the US. It should provide yearly aid of US$5 billion to Taiwan for more weapons procurements.
Second, the US should loan military systems to aid Taiwan. Amid a high probability of Chinese invasion, a quick way to beef up Taiwan’s defenses would to loan military assets to Taiwan. China would start an invasion by saturated missile attacks, so Taiwan needs advanced anti-missile systems to protect its defenses.
If Taiwan and the US could sink most of the Chinese warships taking part in an invasion, Chinese soldiers would not be able to land on Taiwan. Therefore, the US should provide anti-ship missiles to Taiwan. By moving military assets lying idle in US warehouses to Taiwan, Washington would provide a critical deterrence against a Chinese invasion.
A draft Taiwan Defense Act proposed by US Representative Mike Gallagher in June should be passed as soon as possible, as it requires the US Department of Defense to maintain the US’ and Taiwan’s ability to defeat a Chinese invasion.
Third, the US should set up military bases on Taiwan. In December 2017, US President Donald Trump signed a law that authorized mutual visits by navy vessels between the US and Taiwan.
Unfortunately, US Navy ships have not visited Taiwan to avoid upsetting China. Taiwan has many good harbors that could provide supplies and services for US warships operating in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea.
Those warships also require immediate protection from jet fighters and land-based missiles. As US naval carriers often are not nearby and the US air bases in Okinawa and Guam are far away, the US should set up air bases on Taiwan. It could also place fighter jets in mountain caves for protection.
The CCP would hesitate to attack Taiwan, as it would not want to involve the US in a war.
Fourth, the US should conduct regular joint exercises with Taiwanese forces. The worst situation in a war is friendly fire. Even though many Taiwanese military personnel receive training in the US, regular joint exercises are still needed.
There have been almost no joint exercises between the two countries, again because the US does not want to offend China.
The US Senate last month passed the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, which specifically suggests that Washington should invite Taiwan to military exercises.
Fifth, the US should declare clearly its determination to defend Taiwan. The US’ Taiwan Relations Act became effective in January 1979 to provide Taiwan with defensive aid, but it does not require the US to defend Taiwan.
US Representative Ted Yoho last month introduced a “Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act,” which would clarify and strengthen the commitment of the US to defend Taiwan in the event of an armed attack, and would grant limited defensive authorization for the US president to use military force for the specific purpose of securing and protecting Taiwan against an armed attack.
Hopefully, this legislation will be approved soon.
However, it is not enough, because Taiwan needs defense commitments from the US equivalent to those for Japan. The US should clarify its intention to defend Taiwan.
US Vice President Mike Pence on Oct. 4, 2018, made a comprehensive speech outlining the threats from China. Regarding military threats, he said: “China wants nothing less than to push the United States of America from the Western Pacific and attempt to prevent us from coming to the aid of our allies. But they will fail.”
Chinese ambition would start by invading Taiwan. Taiwan’s limited defenses and the ambiguity of the US’ willingness to protect the nation could encourage the CCP to attack Taiwan.
The US should help Taiwan to strengthen its defenses, particularly anti-missile systems and anti-ship missiles. To deter a Chinese invasion, the US should set up naval and air bases on Taiwan and demonstrate its determination to defend Taiwan.
Kenneth Wang is a founder of the Institute of Taiwanese Studies in America.
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