The decision of El Salvador to switch recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the latest in a string of reversals since President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) took power in 2016, raises the importance of the New Southbound Policy. Aside from easing economic overexposure to Mainland China and diversifying economic partners, the policy provides the democratic island-country an avenue to relieve its increasing diplomatic isolation. Overtures to Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), Taiwan’s only remaining ally in Africa, is expected to heat up after the conclusion of the Third Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing early this month.
Apart from Eswatini, all 53 other African countries attended what is considered China’s grandest diplomatic event this year.
These developments represent a serious challenge to the island, which enjoyed its unique separate status for close to 70 years. Indeed, Taiwan’s international position has never reached such a precarious position.
El Salvador was the fifth country to switch sides after Burkina Faso, the Dominican Republic, Sao Tome and Principe, and Panama.
While inducements are no doubt a culprit, it is not unlikely for some of these countries to have intimated their interest to establish formal ties with Beijing, anticipating the economic windfall that comes with it.
However, previous cordial cross-strait ties under Kuomintang [Chinese Nationalist Party, KMT]-led Taiwan created disincentives in entertaining such proposals, especially on the part of the Mainland.
However, such restraints gave way in the face of what China sees as a more independence-leaning leadership in the island under the Democratic Progressive Party’s Tsai.
Failure to affirm the “1992 consensus” was taken as a serious slight and a troubling signal. Hence, the consecutive diplomatic blows suffered by Taiwan in the past two years was seen as China’s punishment for what it sees as the island’s attempt to upset the “status quo.”
This, in turn, only heightened the resolve of Taiwanese to resist Mainland pressure.
As an evolution of past “go south” policies, the New Southbound Policy factors historical lessons, present realities and creatively exploits openings for Taiwan to advance its international standing without unnecessarily provoking Beijing.
The success of the policy might be existential for Taiwan and the recent Salvadorean debacle might only raise the stakes.
As Taiwan prepares for all contingencies, including the scenario of having no more formal diplomatic allies, the policy can surely be a vehicle for the island to preserve its self-governing position.
This said, cross-strait relations will continue to influence the interest of target countries to take part in this strategy.
The policy targets 18 countries in South and Southeast Asia, with special emphasis on eight countries: the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, India and Australia. No longer intent on engaging Beijing in a bidding war to maintain diplomatic allies, the policy focuses on promoting institutional connectivity and soft infrastructure. It leverages the country’s strengths in such areas as healthcare, education, human-capital development, innovation and technology.
The hope is that such institutional linkages and long-term practical cooperation might guarantee the survivability of Taiwan’s international stature against the backdrop of China’s increasing political and economic clout. Such a mode of cooperation enables the island to maintain ties even with countries that already officially recognize Beijing, thus keeping the island’s status.
While some might take a swipe on the low government budget for the policy, it actually signals a whole-of-nation strategy with the state providing the seed money and creating conditions conducive for other stakeholders, such as businesses, mass media, universities and civil society, to connect with their overseas counterparts.
Enterprise incentives and state subsidies for students, scholars and people-to-people exchanges are ways by which the state can encourage other players to join.
New visa-free entry arrangements for tourists coming from selected ASEAN members also constitute one way of increasing the island’s connection with the region. Economic forces such as increasing production costs in the Mainland and burgeoning market potentials in Southeast Asia also encourage more Taiwanese investments to head south.
Nonetheless, the intensity by which countries will engage Taiwan will continue to be a factor in cross-strait relations. Tensions in Mainland-Taiwan ties will limit the propensity of target countries to engage Taiwan.
Meanwhile, other countries’ ability to push back against Mainland pressure will be a function of their trade, aid and investment dependence on China.
However, an overbearing Beijing might also suffer backlash from regional countries keen on maintaining their much-treasured foreign policy autonomy.
For a long time, many countries had liberally interpreted the “one China” policy to maintain robust semi-official/unofficial ties with Taiwan.
The desire to retain this informal arrangement is surely there. Countries with a more diversified trade and investment portfolio enjoy more space to engage Taipei and its policy.
However, this too can narrow when tensions between two sides of the Strait continue to heat up. Thus, in the end, cross-strait ties, not necessarily Taiwan’s relations with policy target countries, might still spell the strategy’s success.
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is a research fellow of Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation Inc and a lecturer in the Chinese Studies Program at Ateneo de Manila University in the Philippines.
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